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Systematic monetary policy and the forward premium puzzle

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  • Demosthenes N. Tambakis
  • Nikola Tarashev

Abstract

Is systematic monetary policy a driver of the forward premium puzzle, i.e. the tendency of high interest-rate currencies to appreciate, thus strongly violating Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)? We address this question by studying a battery of monetary policy rules in a small open economy that is subject to stationary but persistent domestic and foreign shocks. Each rule leads to model-implied UIP violations, which we derive analytically and then calibrate numerically. Our key finding is that only a forward-looking rule based on CPI inflation can account for frequently observed strong UIP violations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 396.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:396

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Related research

Keywords: monetary policy rules; uncovered interest parity; exchange rate dynamics; inflation-targeting;

References

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  1. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  4. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  5. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
  6. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  7. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," NBER Working Papers 13111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  13. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  14. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2012. "When does uncovered interest parity hold?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 865-879.
  15. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  16. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim Ruhl, 2008. "Data Appendix to "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?"," Technical Appendices 07-40, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  19. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
  20. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  22. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  23. Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1047-1070, 09.
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