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For Rich or for Poor: When does Uncovered Interest Parity Hold?

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  • Maurice J. Roche

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada)

  • Michael J. Moore

    ()
    (School of Management and Economics, The Queen's University of Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland)

Abstract

We present a model that simultaneously explains why uncovered interest parity holds for some pairs of countries and not for others. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The negative slope in the Fama regression arises when monetary instability is low and the precautionary savings motive dominates the intertemporal substitution motive. When monetary instability is high, the Fama slope is positive in line with uncovered interest parity. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology for 34 currencies against the US dollar. We conclude that, given the predominance of precautionary savings, the degree of monetary instability explains whether or not uncovered interest parity holds.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ryerson University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 015.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp015

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Keywords: Monetary instability; Uncovered interest parity; Forward biasedness puzzle; Carry trade; Habit persistence;

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References

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  1. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
  2. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  3. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 217, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2009. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Working Papers 001, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  5. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Deep Habits," NBER Working Papers 10261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2007. "Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price," CEPR Discussion Papers 6030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-54, July.
  9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  10. Fisher, Eric O'N., 2006. "The forward premium in a model with heterogeneous prior beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 48-70, February.
  11. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  12. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
  13. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  14. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2007. "Price-Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 419-444, October.
  16. Paul De Grauwe (ed.), 2005. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042223, December.
  17. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 1999. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n910799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  18. Andrew K. Rose & Robert P. Flood, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Working Papers 01/207, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
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Cited by:
  1. Martin D. D. Evans, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," IMF Working Papers 12/66, International Monetary Fund.

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