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Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?

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  • Hanno Lustig
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

We assume that domestic (foreign) agents, when investing abroad, can only trade in the foreign (domestic) risk-free rates. In a preference-free environment, we derive the exchange rate volatility and risk premia in any such incomplete spanning model, as well as a measure of exchange rate cyclicality. We find that incomplete spanning lowers the volatility of exchange rate, increases the risk premia but only by creating exchange rate predictability, and does not affect the exchange rate cyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2019. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2208-2244, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:6:p:2208-44
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lloyd, S. P. & Marin, E. A., 2019. "Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1996, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2022. "How Can Asset Prices Value Exchange Rate Wedges?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kumar, Vikram, 2020. "Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 445-454.
    4. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
    8. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    9. Maurer, Thomas & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2021. "Entangled risks in incomplete FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-165.
    10. Shaojun Zhang, 2021. "Limited Risk Sharing and International Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 893-933, April.
    11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jun Wei, 2020. "Optimal Combination of Currency Assets and Algorithm Simulation under Exchange Rate Risk," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, November.
    13. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    14. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    15. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    16. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Korsaye, Sofonias Alemu & Trojani, Fabio & Vedolin, Andrea, 2023. "The global factor structure of exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 21-46.
    18. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2021. "Coins with benefits: On existence, pricing kernel and risk premium of cryptocurrencies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-006, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    19. Fang, Xiang & Liu, Yang, 2021. "Volatility, intermediaries, and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 217-233.
    20. Guo, Wei & Chen, Zhongfei & Šević, Aleksandar, 2021. "The political pressure from the US upon RMB exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Branger, Nicole & Herold, Michael & Muck, Matthias, 2021. "International stochastic discount factors and covariance risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    22. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.
    23. Mirela Sandulescu & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Model‐Free International Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 935-976, April.
    24. Vedolin, Andrea & Korsaye, Sofonias Alemu & Trojani, Fabio, 2020. "The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Xinglin Yang, 2023. "Unspanned macro risks in VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1305-1328, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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