Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Tests for m-dependence Based on Sample Splitting Methods

Contents:

Author Info

  • Seongman Moon

    ()
    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • Carlos Velasco

    ()
    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract

This paper develops new inference methods for m-dependent data. Our approach is based on sample splitting by regular sampling of original data at lower frequencies, so that standard techniques can be used for independent data in individual subsamples. We then explore several alternatives of aggregation across subsample statistics and investigate their asymptotic and finite sample properties. We apply our methods to nonparametric tests of the predictability of excess returns in the presence of m-dependence. We also illustrate how our serial dependence tests can provide valid information for identifying particular economic alternatives when testing the expectations hypothesis in foreign exchange markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://163.239.165.41/RePEc/sgo/wpaper/MSM_RIME_2011-08.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University in its series Working Papers with number 1108.

as in new window
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1108

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1 Sinsu-dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul 121-742
Phone: 82-2-705-8226
Fax: 82-2-705-8226
Email:
Web page: http://home.sogang.ac.kr/sites/sgrime
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: m-dependence; sample splitting; pooled method; Wald method; minimum/maximum/median method; expectations hypothesis.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
  2. Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Hidalgo, Javier & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2007. "A goodness-of-fit test for ARCH([infinity]) models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 835-875, December.
  4. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  6. Raffaella Giacomini, & Dimitris N. Politis & Halbert White, 2012. "A warp-speed method for conducting Monte Carlo experiments involving bootstrap estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  8. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
  10. Arup Bose, 1990. "Bootstrap in moving average models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 753-768, December.
  11. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  12. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  13. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1995. "Exact Nonparametric Orthogonality and Random Walk Tests," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 1-16, February.
  15. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  17. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
  19. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  20. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  21. J. Carlos Escanciano & Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Generalized Spectral Tests For The Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws035212, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  23. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  24. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
  26. Delgado, Miguel A. & Velasco, Carlos, 2011. "An Asymptotically Pivotal Transform of the Residuals Sample Autocorrelations With Application to Model Checking," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 946-958.
  27. Tauchen, George, 2001. "The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 695-704, December.
  28. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  29. Qiwei Yao & Peter J. Brockwell, 2006. "Gaussian Maximum Likelihood Estimation For ARMA Models. I. Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 857-875, November.
  30. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  31. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  32. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  33. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
  35. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (In Choi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.