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A new Test of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Turkey

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Author Info
Erdemlioglu, Deniz M

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Abstract

This paper examines if uncovered interest rate parity condition holds for Turkey. In this paper, an empirical analysis is provided for the dates between December 2001 and June 2007 by using monthly data for Turkey and the U.S. Main finding is that UIP does not hold for Turkey. In addition to this, UIP deviation goes up over time, AR (1) fits the data well, there is an ARCH effect and GARCH (1,1) specification is significant for Turkish case.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10787/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10787.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10787

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Related research
Keywords: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Unit Root Test; AR Process; ARCH and GARCH Models.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. John T. Harvey, 2004. "Deviations from uncovered interest rate parity: a Post Keynesian explanation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 19-35, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Avik Chakraborty, 2004. "Learning, the Forward Premium Puzzle and Market Efficiency," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chinn, Menzie & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons," Discussion Paper Series 26355, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alain P. Chaboud & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," International Finance Discussion Papers 752, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Clemens Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 6. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James R. Lothian & Liuren Wu, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Over the Past Two Centuries," International Finance 0311009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Peter Isard, 2006. "Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Working Papers 06/96, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Philip Marey, 2004. "Uncovered interest parity tests and exchange rate expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 54, Society for Computational Economics.
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  17. Daniel L.Thornton, 2007. "Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles," Working Papers 2007-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  18. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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