Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium
AbstractThe aim of this study is to analyze the potential risk premium inherent in the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. In this approach the GARCH class models, including Component GARCH are used to measure the time-varying risk premium and the results show that it is significant in most countries studied in this analysis. This suggests that risk is an important part of modeling exchange rates and needs to be considered in both empirical and theoretical models. In general, the results suggest emerging countries work better in terms of UIP and the risk premium than developed countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bath, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 24072.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 1993.
"Further evidence on exchange rate expectations,"
Open Access publications from Maastricht University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13903, Maastricht University.
- Marcus Pramor & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro," IMF Working Papers 06/206, International Monetary Fund.
- Tigran Poghosyan & EvÅ¾en KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
- Melander, Ola, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity in a Partially Dollarized Developing Country: Does UIP Hold in Bolivia? (And If Not, Why Not?)," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 716, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2009.
- Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Jorion, 1989.
"The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
- Peter Isard, 2006. "Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Working Papers 06/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 1999.
"The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 6.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Anker, Peter, 1999. "Uncovered interest parity, monetary policy and time-varying risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 835-851, December.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
- Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Results Based on Survey Data," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 142-53, June.
- Soo Khoon Goh & Guay Lim & Nilss Olekalns, 2006. "Deviations from uncovered interest parity in Malaysia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 745-759.
- Ichiue, Hibiki & Koyama, Kentaro, 2011. "Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1436-1450.
- Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "The Impact of Short- and Long-run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 307-329, 06.
- Angela Black & David McMillan, 2004. "Long run trends and volatility spillovers in daily exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 895-907.
- Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Publications Librarian).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.