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The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition

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  • Uluc Aysun

    ()
    (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL)

  • Sanglim Lee

    ()
    (Korea Energy Economics Institute, 132 Naesonsunhwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea)

Abstract

This paper shows that the deviation from the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition is equally large in advanced and emergingmarket economies. Using monthly data, and a GARCH-M model we find that a large share of these deviations in both country groups are explained by time varying risk premium. To more clearly identify risk premium shocks, we then estimate a two country, New Keynesian, DSGE model using a Bayesian methodology and quarterly data. The results suggest that at the quarterly frequency, the large deviations from the UIP condition and the high explanatory power of risk premium is only observed for emerging market economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Central Florida, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-03.

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Length: 42 Pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2013-03

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Related research

Keywords: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Forward Premium Puzzle; Time Varying Risk Premium;

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  3. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  6. Melander, Ola, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity in a Partially Dollarized Developing Country: Does UIP Hold in Bolivia? (And If Not, Why Not?)," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 716, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2009.
  7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  8. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  9. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen Kočenda & Petr Zemčik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
  10. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
  11. Uluc Aysun & Sami Alpanda, 2012. "International Transmission of Financial Shocks in an Estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2012-06, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
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