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Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options

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Author Info
Martin Cincibuch
David Vavra

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Abstract

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 with number 16.

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Date of creation: 27 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:16

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Allan M. Malz, 1997. "Option-implied probability distributions and currency excess returns," Staff Reports 32, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Working Papers 93-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  9. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ross, Stephen A, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carsten Detken & Vitor Gaspar, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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