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Econometric analysis of present value models when the discount factor is near one

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  • West, Kenneth D.

Abstract

This paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches one as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with the modest departures from random walk behavior that are typically found and with imprecise estimation of a well-studied regression relating spot and forward exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 171 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 86-97

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:171:y:2012:i:1:p:86-97

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Uncovered interest parity; Asset price; Exchange rate; Forward rate; Forward premium anomaly; Expected return; Random walk; Efficient markets; Martingale model;

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2004. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 628, Econometric Society.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  4. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," 2006 Meeting Papers 872, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  12. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  16. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
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  18. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2010. "Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates," Working Papers halshs-00536140, HAL.
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  20. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  21. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 709-42.
  22. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
  23. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  24. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
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  26. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
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