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Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?

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  • William P. Osterberg

Abstract

An investigation of the impact of U.S. and German central-bank interventions on the forward discount puzzle for two exchange rates-the German mark/U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar-using official 1985-91 data. The evidence on the importance of intervention is strongest for the DM/$. However, the direction of the impact is inconsistent with the findings of Flood and Rose (1996) if periods of intervention are viewed as equivalent to fixed-rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1997:i:qiv:p:24-31
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    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/review/1997/97-q4-osterberg.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    3. Owen F. Humpage, 1994. "Institutional aspects of U.S. intervention," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 30(Q I), pages 2-19.
    4. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Loopesko, Bonnie E., 1984. "Relationships among exchange rates, intervention, and interest rates: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-277, December.
    7. Michael W. Klein & Eric Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
    8. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    9. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
    10. Geert J. Almekinders, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Intervention," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 71.
    11. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Zhen, 2002. "Time-varying forward bias and the expected excess return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 119-137, April.

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