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Foreign exchange market inefficiency and exchange rate anomalies

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  • Li, Jing
  • Miller, Norman C.

Abstract

This paper develops a perfectly general non-linear Uncovered Interest Parity, UIP, framework with foreign exchange (fx) market inefficiency. The latter means that there is always some “unexploited profit” which tends to generate a negative value for Fama's beta coefficient. However, as ID decays over time, this tends to generate a positive value for beta. The sign of beta is uncertain. It is shown that this result implies that the existence of fx market inefficiency is consistent with many puzzling facts about exchange rates, and that the model's implied values for beta are consistent with those obtained via actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jing & Miller, Norman C., 2015. "Foreign exchange market inefficiency and exchange rate anomalies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-320.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:311-320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2014.12.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    2. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Boubaker, Heni & Zorgati, Mouna Ben Saad & Bannour, Nawres, 2021. "Interdependence between exchange rates: Evidence from multivariate analysis since the financial crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-608.
    4. Cristi Spulbar & Elena Loredana Minea, 2022. "Inefficient Stock Markets And Their Implications In The Context Of Extreme Financial Events: A Theoretical Framework," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 38-41, February.
    5. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    6. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered Interest Parity; Delayed overshooting; fx market inefficiency; Extreme support; Fama's beta; Forward bias puzzle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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