This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Juan Ángel Lafuente (Universidad Jaume I, Unidad Predepartamental de Finanzas y Contabilidad)
Jesús Ruiz (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Universidad Complutense)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Forward exchange rate unbiassedness is rejected for international exchange markets. This paper proposes a stochastic general equilibrium model which generates substantial variability in the magnitude of predictable excess returns. Simulation exercises suggest that high persistency in the monetary policy produces greater bias in the estimated slope coefficient in the regression of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward premium. Also, our model suggest that the nature of the transmission between monetary shocks can explain the excess return puzzle. Empirical evidence for the US-UK exchange rate according to our theoretical results is provided.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/7671/
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico with number 0214.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0214

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 913942602
Email:
Web page: http://www.ucm.es/info/cee/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".

This page was last updated on 2009-12-13.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.