# National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

# NBER Working Papers

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### 1978

**0251 A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration of Employment***by*Robert E. Hall**0249 Education and Self-Selection***by*Robert J. Willis & Sherwin Rosen**0248 Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages***by*Richard B. Freeman**0247 Perspective on Bank Capital Adequacy: Time-Series Analysis***by*Laurie Goodman & William F. Sharpe**0246 Causation Among Socioeconomic Time-Series***by*Robert T. Michael**0245 The Propagation of Prices in the Oil Industry***by*Avram Kisselgoff**0244 Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators***by*Beatrice N. Vaccara & Victor Zarnowitz**0238 Price Behavior in the Manufacturing Sector for Sixteen Industries Classified by Stage-of-Process***by*Joel Popkin**0237 Interest Rate Risk and Capital Adequacy For Traditional Banks and Financial Intermediaries***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0236 The Supply of Surgeons and the Demand for Operations***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0235 Price Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Nominal Interest Rates***by*Benjamin M. Friedman**0234 Inflation and the Excess Taxation of Capital Gains on Corporate Stock***by*Martin Feldstein & Joel Slemrod**0233 Job Mobility and Earnings Over the Life Cycle***by*George J. Borjas**0231 Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?***by*Benjamin M. Friedman**0229 On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts***by*Victor Zarnowitz**0228 Estimating the Family Labor Supply Functions Derived from the Stone-Geary Utility Function***by*Michael D. Hurd**0227 Salvors, Finders, Good Samaritans and Other Rescuers: An Economic Study of Law and Altruism***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0224 The Earnings Function: A Glimpse Inside the Black Box***by*James L. Medoff

### 1977

**0226 Fluctuation in Equilibrium Unemployment***by*Robert E. Hall**0225 Job Satisfaction as an Economic Variable***by*Richard B. Freeman**0223 The Private and Social Costs of Unemployment***by*Martin Feldstein**0222 The Cumulative Unanticipated Change in Interest Rates: Evidence on the Misintermediation Hypothesis***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0221 Taxation and Aggregate Factor Supply: Preliminary Estimates***by*Michael J. Boskin & Lawrence J. Lau**0220 Occupational Licensing and the Inter-State Mobility of Professionals***by*B. Peter Pashigian**0219 The Choice of Diet for Young Children and Its Relation to Children's Growth***by*Dov Chernichovsky & Douglas Coate**0218 Heterogeneous-Expectations Model of the Value of Bonds Bearing Call Options***by*Zvi Bodie & Benjamin M. Friedman**0217 Altruism in Law and Economics***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0216 An Evaluation of the Role of Factor Markets and Intensities in the Social Security Crisis: A Progress Report***by*John B. Shoven**0215 Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance***by*Jerry R. Green**0214 Aspects of Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Search, Leisure and Capital Market Imperfections***by*J. S. Flemming**0212 Social Security Wealth: The Impact of Alternative Inflation Adjustments***by*Martin Feldstein & Anthony J. Pellechio**0211 The Service Industries and U.S. Economic Growth Since World War II***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0210 An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1960-1976***by*William M. Landes**0209 Bank Capital Adequacy, Deposit Insurance and Security Values, Part I***by*William F. Sharpe**0208 An Economic Theory of Self-Control***by*H. M. Shefrin & Richard Thaler**0207 Local Government Budgeting: The Econometric Comparison of Political and Bureaucratic Models***by*Martin Feldstein & Daniel J. Frisch**0204 The Effect of Social Security on Early Retirement***by*Michael J. Boskin & Michael D. Hurd**0203 Taxation, Inflation, and Monetary Policy***by*Eytan Sheshinski**0202 Two Papers on the Recent Rise in U.S. Divorce Rate***by*Robert T. Michael**0201 The Welfare Cost of Permanent Inflation and Optimal Short-Run Economic Policy***by*Martin Feldstein**0200 Share-Tenancy and Family Size in the Brazilian Northeast***by*Anna L. Ozorio de Alneida**0199 Family Migration Decisions***by*Jacob Mincer**0197 An Agricultural Time Series-Cross Section Data Set***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Steven J. DeCanio & M. Scott Matthews**0196 An Adaptive Nonlinear Least Square Algorithm***by*John E. Dennis & David M. Gay & Roy E. Welsch**0195 Finding Leverage Groups***by*David E. Coleman**0194 Cost-Benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty***by*David A. Graham**0192 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part III, An Analysis of Changing Trade Patterns, 1955-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0191 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part II, Constant-Price Trade Matrices, 1955-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0190 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part I, Current Price Trade Matrices, 1948-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0189 A System of Subroutines For Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares Computations***by*David E. Coleman & Paul W. Holland & Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0188 Notes on the Public Debt and Social Insurance***by*Jerry R. Green**0187 A Model of Social Security and Retirement Decisions***by*Eytan Sheshinski**0185 Estimation of Permanent and Transitory Response Functions in Panels Data: A Dynamic Labor Supply Model***by*Lee A. Lillard**0184 A Theory of the Production and Allocation of Effort***by*Gary S. Becker**0183 The Government's Impact on the Labor Market Status of Black Americans: A Critical Review***by*Richard Butler & James J. Heckman**0182 Export Prices and Exchange Rates***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey & Eliot R. J. Kalter**0181 Price Behavior in the Light of Balance of Payments Theories***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey**0180 An Economic Analysis of Children's Health and Intellectual Development***by*Linda N. Edwards & Michael Grossman**0179 Identifying Identical Distributed Lag Structures by the Use of Prior SumConstraints***by*Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley**0177 Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System***by*James J. Heckman**0176 Export and Domestic Prices Under Inflation and Exchange Rate Movements***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey**0175 Some Convergence Properties of Broyden's Method***by*David M. Gay**0174 Educational Screening and Occupational Earnings***by*Edward N. Wolff & Joel Hay**0173 Linear Regression Diagnostics***by*Roy E. Welsch & Edwin Kuh**0172 Sample Selection Bias As a Specification Error (with an Application to the Estimation of Labor Supply Functions)***by*James J. Heckman**0171 The Effect of Minimum Wage Legislation on Income Equality: A TheoreticalAnalysis***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0170 The Austrian Theory of the Marginal Use And of Ordinal Marginal Utility***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0169 Solving Systems of Non-Linear Equations by Broyden's Method with Projected Updates***by*David M. Gay & Robert B. Schnabel**0168 Wage Differentials Are Larger Than You Think***by*Edward P. Lazear**0167 Money And Income, Causality Detection***by*Cheng Hsiao**0166 Industrial Demand for Energy***by*Robert Halborsen**0165 Rosetak Document 4: Rank Degeneracies and Least Square Problems***by*Gene Golub & Virginia Klema & G. W. Stewart**0164 Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment - Plan of Research for Country Studies***by*Anne O. Krueger**0163 The Gains and Losses From Industrial Concentration***by*Sam Peltzman**0162 Labor Quality, the Demand for Skill, and Market Selection***by*Sherwin Rosen**0161 Middle-Age Job Mobility: Its Determinants and Consequences***by*Ann P. Bartel & George J. Borjas**0160 Misintermediation and Business Fluctuation***by*J. Huston McCulloch

### 1976

**0159 A Conic Algorithm for the Group Minimization Problem***by*Bruno Simeone**0158 The Market for Lawyers: The Determinants of the Demand for and Supply ofLawyers***by*B. Peter Pashigian**0157 Efficient Estimation of a Dynamic Error-Shock Model***by*Cheng Hsiao & P. M. Robinson**0156 None***by*None**0155 Foreign Competition and the UK***by*Arthur W. Lake**0154 Multicollinearity: Diagnosing its Presence and Assessing the Potential Damage It Causes Least Squares Estimation***by*David A. Belsley**0153 Economics of Marital Instability***by*Gary S. Becker & Elisabeth M. Landes & Robert T. Michael**0152 Optimal Tax Theory: Econometric Evidence and Tax Policy***by*Michael J. Boskin**0151 Some Lessons from the New Public Finance***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz & Michael J. Boskin**0150 Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility***by*Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis**0149 Age, Education and Occupational Earnings Inequality***by*Edward N. Wolff & Dennis M. Bushe**0148 Who is the Family's Main Breadwinner? The Wife's Contribution to Full Income***by*Reuben Gronau**0147 Factors Affecting Divorce: A Study of the Terman Sample***by*Robert T. Michael**0146 Legal Precedent: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0145 Intergenerational Externalities***by*Edward P. Lazear**0144 Optimal Income Redistribution When Individual Welfare Depends Upon Relative Income***by*Michael J. Boskin & Eytan Sheshinski**0143 The Distribution of Earnings Profiles in Longitudinal Data***by*George J. Borjas & Jacob Mincer**0142 Estimation of Econometric Model Using Nonlinear Full Information Maximum Likelihood: Preliminary Computer Results***by*David A. Belsley & Kent D. Wall**0140 A Multiplicative Model of Investment in Human Capital***by*Yoram Weiss**0139 Treatment Decision-Making in Catastrophic Illness***by*Kenneth E. Warner**0138 Experience, Vintage and Time Effects in the Growth of Earnings: AmericanScientists, 1960-1970***by*Yoram Weiss & Lee A. Lillard**0137 Leisure, Home Production and Work--The Theory of The Allocation of Time Revisited***by*Reuben Gronau**0136 Price Behavior in Primary Manufacturing Industries, 1958-1973***by*Joel Popkin**0135 Taxation, Saving and the Rate of Interest***by*Michael J. Boskin**0133 Toward a More General Theory of Regulation***by*Sam Peltzman**0132 Health, Family Structure, and Labor Supply***by*Donald O. Parsons**0131 Exports and Foreign Investment in Manufacturing Industries***by*Robert E. Lipsey & Merle Yahr Weiss**0130 Rosepack Document 3: Guidelines for Writing Semi-Portable Fortran***by*Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0129 A Survey of Recent Research in Health Economics***by*Michael Grossman**0128 A Note on Optimal Smoothing for Time Varying Coefficient Problems***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0127 Identification Theory for Time Varying Models***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0126 Transnational Activity and Market Entry in the Semiconductor Industry***by*Arthur W. Lake**0125 On Modifying Singular Values to Solve Possible Singular Systems of Non-Linear Equations***by*David M. Gay**0124 Representing Symmetric Rank Two Updates***by*David M. Gay**0123 Child Endowments, and the Quantity and Quality of Children***by*Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes**0122 The Market for Optometric Services in the United States***by*Douglas Coate**0121 Analysis of Longitudinal Earnings Data: American Scientists 1960-70***by*Lee A. Lillard & Yoram Weiss**0120 From Bismark to Woodcock: The "Irrational" Pursuit of National Health Insurance***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0119 Interequation Constraint and the Specification of Dynamic Structure***by*Kent D. Wall

### 1975

**0118 The International Transfer of Semi-Conductor Technology Through U.S. Based Firms***by*William F. Finan**0116 Notes on the Tax Treatment of Human Capital***by*Michael J. Boskin**0115 The Production of Health Services in Fee for Service, for Profit Health Practices: The Case of Optometrists***by*Douglas Coate**0114 On the Measurement of Benefits in an Urban Context: Some General Equilibrium Issues***by*Paul Courant & Daniel L. Rubinfeld**0113 Random Directed Graph Distributions in the Triad Census in Social Networks***by*Stanley S. Wasserman**0112 A Beta-Logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women***by*James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis**0111 Confidence Regions for Robust Regression***by*Roy E. Welsch**0110 The Independent Judiciary in an Interest-Group Perspective***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0109 Notes on Automating Stem and Leaf Displays***by*David C. Hoaglin & Stanley S. Wasserman**0108 Are Health Workers Underpaid?***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0107 Social Security and Retirement Decisions***by*Michael J. Boskin**0106 Parametric Integer Programming the Right Hand Side Case***by*Roy A. Marsten & Thomas Morin**0105 Time-Utilization of a Population of General Practitioners in a Prepaid Group Practice***by*Richard N. Watkins & Edward F. X. Hughes & Eugene M. Lewit**0104 Education: Consumption or Production***by*Edward P. Lazear**0103 Rosepack Document 1: Guidelines for Writing Semi-portable Fortran***by*Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0102 Education and Screening***by*Kenneth Wolpin**0101 Innovation and Foreign Investment Behavior of the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry***by*Benjamin I. Cohen & Jorge Katz & William T. Beck**0100 Finding a Dual Feasible Solution to an LP with M Equalities in (l&M) Dual Iterations***by*Vinay Dharmadhikari**0099 The Earnings of Scientists, 1960-1970: Experience, Age and Vintage Effects***by*Yoram Weiss**0098 The Demand for Nursing Home Care: An Analysis of the Substitution Between Institutional and Noninstitutional Care***by*Barry R. Chiswick**0097 Human Wealth and Human Capital***by*Edward P. Lazear**0096 Specification Errors in Limited Dependent Variable Models***by*G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson**0095 Qualitative Information, Reputation, and Monopolistic Competition***by*Michael R. Darby & John R. Lott, Jr.**0094 Decision-Stage Method: Convergence Proof, Special Application, and Computation Experience***by*Vinay Dharmadhikari**0093 Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review***by*Robert J. Shiller**0092 Schooling as a Wage Depressant***by*Edward P. Lazear**0091 Autoregressive Spectrum Estimation Technique Allied to Quarterly Consumer Durables Expenditure Data***by*Warren G. Lavey**0090 The Maximum Likelihood Stage Least Squares Estimator in the Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Model***by*Takeshi Amemiya**0089 Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation***by*Robert J. Shiller**0088 Three-And-A-Half Million U.S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, An Explanation of Unemployment, 1934-1941***by*Michael R. Darby**0087 Exports and Foreign Investment in the Pharmaceutical Industry***by*Robert E. Lipsey & Merle Yahr Weiss**0086 THe Use of the Box Step Method in Discrete Optimization***by*Roy E. Marsten**0085 On the Identification of Time Varying Structures***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0084 A Comparison of Two Simple Methods for Obtaining Robust Confidence Intervals***by*Richard W. Hill**0083 Robust Line Estimation With Errors in Both Variables***by*Michael L. Brown**0082 Certain Aspects of Generalized Box-Jenkins Models***by*Richard W. Hill**0081 The Parental Bequest to Children***by*Arleen Leibowitz**0080 Inequality: Earnings vs. Human Wealth***by*Lee A. Lillard**0079 The Consumer Expenditure Function***by*Michael R. Darby**0078 Tables of Sample Size For the F-Test in One Way Analysis of Variance Designs***by*Richard W. Hill**0077 FIML Estimation of Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form Models***by*Kent D. Wall**0076 Robust Non-Linear Regression Using The Dogleg Algorithm***by*Roy E. Welsch & Richard A. Becker**0075 Implementing and Documenting Random Number Generators***by*David C. Hoaglin**0074 Variation Across Household in the Rate of Inflation***by*Robert T. Michael**0073 The Role of Physicians in the Production of Hospital Output***by*Mark Pauly & Mark A. Satterthwaite**0071 On the Theory of Productive Saving***by*Isaac Ehrlich & Uri Ben-Zion**0067 Human Capital and Labor Supply: A Synthesis***by*Alan S. Blinder & Yoram Weiss

### 1974

**0072 The Goodness of Match***by*Edward N. Wolff**0070 Analysis of Qualitative Variables***by*G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson**0069 Ridge Estimators for Distributed Lag Models***by*G.S. Maddala**0068 On a General Computer Algorithm for the Analysis of Models with Limited Dependent Variables***by*Forrest D. Nelson**0066 Detecting and Assessing the Problems Caused by Multi-Collinearity: A Useof the Singular-Value Decomposition***by*David A. Belsley & Virginia Klema**0065 Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form--A General Econometric Model***by*Kent D. Wall**0064 Data Analysis, Communication, and Control***by*Roy E. Welsch**0063 Censored Regression Models with Unobserved Stochastic Censoring Thresholds***by*Forrest D. Nelson**0062 The Private Enforcement of Law***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0061 Factoring LP Block-Angular Bases***by*William Orchard-Hays**0060 The Variances of Regression Coefficient Estimates Using Aggregate Data***by*Roy E. Welsch & Edwin Kuh**0059 An Analysis of Firm Demand for Protection Against Crime***by*Ann P. Bartel**0058 A Monte Carlo Study of Two Robust Alternatives of Least Square Regression Estimation***by*Richard W. Hill & Paul W. Holland**0057 Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Steven J. DeCanio**0056 Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macroeconometric Model***by*Thomas F. Cooley**0055 Social Costs of Monopoly and Regulation***by*Richard A. Posner**0054 Bilateral Trade as a Development Instrument Under Global Trade Restrictions***by*Karim Nashashibi**0053 Progress in Human Capital Analysis of the Distribution of Earnings***by*Jacob Mincer**0052 Transportation/Communication Considerations in the Location of Headquarters for Multi-Establishment Manufacturing Firms***by*Warren G. Lavey**0051 Age, Experience and Wage Growth***by*Edward P. Lazear**0050 Measuring the Effect of an Anti-Discrimination Program***by*Orley Ashenfelter & James J. Heckman**0049 Years and Intensity of Schooling Investing***by*Arleen Leibowitz**0048 Protection and Competitiveness in Egyptian Agriculture and Industry***by*Bent Hansen & Karim Nashashibi**0047 The Distribution of Earnings and Human Wealth in Cycle Context***by*Lee A. Lillard**0046 The Singular Value Analysis in Matrix Computation***by*Richard A. Becker & Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0045 The Incubator Hypothesis: Evidence from Five Cities***by*Robert A. Leone & Raymond Struyk**0044 The Statistical Analysis of Local Structure in Social Networks***by*Paul W. Holland & Samuel Leinhardt**0043 Graphics for Data Analysis***by*Roy E. Welsch**0042 A Theory of Social Interactions***by*Gary S. Becker**0041 Theories of Economic Regulation***by*Richard A. Posner**0040 Legality and Reality: Some Evidence on Criminal Procedure***by*William M. Landes**0039 Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages***by*Jacob Mincer**0038 A General Algorithm for Simultaneous Estimation of Constant and Randomly-Varying Parameters in Lineal Relations***by*Alexander H. Sarris**0037 Interpreting Spectral Analyses in Terms of Time-Domain Models***by*Robert F. Engle**0036 Economic Theories of Fertility: What do They Explain?***by*Warren C. Sanderson**0035 Changes in the Recession Behavior of Wholesale Prices: The 1920s and Post World War II***by*Phillip Cagan**0034 Estimation of a Stochastic Model of Reproduction: An Econometric Approach***by*James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis