# National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

# NBER Working Papers

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### 1977

**0199 Family Migration Decisions***by*Jacob Mincer**0197 An Agricultural Time Series-Cross Section Data Set***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Steven J. DeCanio & M. Scott Matthews**0196 An Adaptive Nonlinear Least Square Algorithm***by*John E. Dennis & David M. Gay & Roy E. Welsch**0195 Finding Leverage Groups***by*David E. Coleman**0194 Cost-Benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty***by*David A. Graham**0192 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part III, An Analysis of Changing Trade Patterns, 1955-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0191 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part II, Constant-Price Trade Matrices, 1955-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0190 The Pacific Basin in World Trade: Part I, Current Price Trade Matrices, 1948-1975***by*Bert G. Hickman & Yoshimi Kuroda & Lawrence J. Lau**0189 A System of Subroutines For Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares Computations***by*David E. Coleman & Paul W. Holland & Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0188 Notes on the Public Debt and Social Insurance***by*Jerry R. Green**0187 A Model of Social Security and Retirement Decisions***by*Eytan Sheshinski**0185 Estimation of Permanent and Transitory Response Functions in Panels Data: A Dynamic Labor Supply Model***by*Lee A. Lillard**0184 A Theory of the Production and Allocation of Effort***by*Gary S. Becker**0183 The Government's Impact on the Labor Market Status of Black Americans: A Critical Review***by*Richard Butler & James J. Heckman**0182 Export Prices and Exchange Rates***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey & Eliot R. J. Kalter**0181 Price Behavior in the Light of Balance of Payments Theories***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey**0180 An Economic Analysis of Children's Health and Intellectual Development***by*Linda N. Edwards & Michael Grossman**0179 Identifying Identical Distributed Lag Structures by the Use of Prior SumConstraints***by*Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley**0177 Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System***by*James J. Heckman**0176 Export and Domestic Prices Under Inflation and Exchange Rate Movements***by*Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey**0175 Some Convergence Properties of Broyden's Method***by*David M. Gay**0174 Educational Screening and Occupational Earnings***by*Edward N. Wolff & Joel Hay**0173 Linear Regression Diagnostics***by*Roy E. Welsch & Edwin Kuh**0172 Sample Selection Bias As a Specification Error (with an Application to the Estimation of Labor Supply Functions)***by*James J. Heckman**0171 The Effect of Minimum Wage Legislation on Income Equality: A TheoreticalAnalysis***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0170 The Austrian Theory of the Marginal Use And of Ordinal Marginal Utility***by*J. Huston McCulloch**0169 Solving Systems of Non-Linear Equations by Broyden's Method with Projected Updates***by*David M. Gay & Robert B. Schnabel**0168 Wage Differentials Are Larger Than You Think***by*Edward P. Lazear**0167 Money And Income, Causality Detection***by*Cheng Hsiao**0166 Industrial Demand for Energy***by*Robert Halborsen**0165 Rosetak Document 4: Rank Degeneracies and Least Square Problems***by*Gene Golub & Virginia Klema & G. W. Stewart**0164 Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment - Plan of Research for Country Studies***by*Anne O. Krueger**0163 The Gains and Losses From Industrial Concentration***by*Sam Peltzman**0162 Labor Quality, the Demand for Skill, and Market Selection***by*Sherwin Rosen**0161 Middle-Age Job Mobility: Its Determinants and Consequences***by*Ann P. Bartel & George J. Borjas**0160 Misintermediation and Business Fluctuation***by*J. Huston McCulloch

### 1976

**0159 A Conic Algorithm for the Group Minimization Problem***by*Bruno Simeone**0158 The Market for Lawyers: The Determinants of the Demand for and Supply ofLawyers***by*B. Peter Pashigian**0157 Efficient Estimation of a Dynamic Error-Shock Model***by*Cheng Hsiao & P. M. Robinson**0156 None***by*None**0155 Foreign Competition and the UK***by*Arthur W. Lake**0154 Multicollinearity: Diagnosing its Presence and Assessing the Potential Damage It Causes Least Squares Estimation***by*David A. Belsley**0153 Economics of Marital Instability***by*Gary S. Becker & Elisabeth M. Landes & Robert T. Michael**0152 Optimal Tax Theory: Econometric Evidence and Tax Policy***by*Michael J. Boskin**0151 Some Lessons from the New Public Finance***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz & Michael J. Boskin**0150 Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility***by*Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis**0149 Age, Education and Occupational Earnings Inequality***by*Edward N. Wolff & Dennis M. Bushe**0148 Who is the Family's Main Breadwinner? The Wife's Contribution to Full Income***by*Reuben Gronau**0147 Factors Affecting Divorce: A Study of the Terman Sample***by*Robert T. Michael**0146 Legal Precedent: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0145 Intergenerational Externalities***by*Edward P. Lazear**0144 Optimal Income Redistribution When Individual Welfare Depends Upon Relative Income***by*Michael J. Boskin & Eytan Sheshinski**0143 The Distribution of Earnings Profiles in Longitudinal Data***by*George J. Borjas & Jacob Mincer**0142 Estimation of Econometric Model Using Nonlinear Full Information Maximum Likelihood: Preliminary Computer Results***by*David A. Belsley & Kent D. Wall**0140 A Multiplicative Model of Investment in Human Capital***by*Yoram Weiss**0139 Treatment Decision-Making in Catastrophic Illness***by*Kenneth E. Warner**0138 Experience, Vintage and Time Effects in the Growth of Earnings: AmericanScientists, 1960-1970***by*Yoram Weiss & Lee A. Lillard**0137 Leisure, Home Production and Work--The Theory of The Allocation of Time Revisited***by*Reuben Gronau**0136 Price Behavior in Primary Manufacturing Industries, 1958-1973***by*Joel Popkin**0135 Taxation, Saving and the Rate of Interest***by*Michael J. Boskin**0133 Toward a More General Theory of Regulation***by*Sam Peltzman**0132 Health, Family Structure, and Labor Supply***by*Donald O. Parsons**0131 Exports and Foreign Investment in Manufacturing Industries***by*Robert E. Lipsey & Merle Yahr Weiss**0130 Rosepack Document 3: Guidelines for Writing Semi-Portable Fortran***by*Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0129 A Survey of Recent Research in Health Economics***by*Michael Grossman**0128 A Note on Optimal Smoothing for Time Varying Coefficient Problems***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0127 Identification Theory for Time Varying Models***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0126 Transnational Activity and Market Entry in the Semiconductor Industry***by*Arthur W. Lake**0125 On Modifying Singular Values to Solve Possible Singular Systems of Non-Linear Equations***by*David M. Gay**0124 Representing Symmetric Rank Two Updates***by*David M. Gay**0123 Child Endowments, and the Quantity and Quality of Children***by*Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes**0122 The Market for Optometric Services in the United States***by*Douglas Coate**0121 Analysis of Longitudinal Earnings Data: American Scientists 1960-70***by*Lee A. Lillard & Yoram Weiss**0120 From Bismark to Woodcock: The "Irrational" Pursuit of National Health Insurance***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0119 Interequation Constraint and the Specification of Dynamic Structure***by*Kent D. Wall

### 1975

**0118 The International Transfer of Semi-Conductor Technology Through U.S. Based Firms***by*William F. Finan**0116 Notes on the Tax Treatment of Human Capital***by*Michael J. Boskin**0115 The Production of Health Services in Fee for Service, for Profit Health Practices: The Case of Optometrists***by*Douglas Coate**0114 On the Measurement of Benefits in an Urban Context: Some General Equilibrium Issues***by*Paul Courant & Daniel L. Rubinfeld**0113 Random Directed Graph Distributions in the Triad Census in Social Networks***by*Stanley S. Wasserman**0112 A Beta-Logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women***by*James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis**0111 Confidence Regions for Robust Regression***by*Roy E. Welsch**0110 The Independent Judiciary in an Interest-Group Perspective***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0109 Notes on Automating Stem and Leaf Displays***by*David C. Hoaglin & Stanley S. Wasserman**0108 Are Health Workers Underpaid?***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0107 Social Security and Retirement Decisions***by*Michael J. Boskin**0106 Parametric Integer Programming the Right Hand Side Case***by*Roy A. Marsten & Thomas Morin**0105 Time-Utilization of a Population of General Practitioners in a Prepaid Group Practice***by*Richard N. Watkins & Edward F. X. Hughes & Eugene M. Lewit**0104 Education: Consumption or Production***by*Edward P. Lazear**0103 Rosepack Document 1: Guidelines for Writing Semi-portable Fortran***by*Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0102 Education and Screening***by*Kenneth Wolpin**0101 Innovation and Foreign Investment Behavior of the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry***by*Benjamin I. Cohen & Jorge Katz & William T. Beck**0100 Finding a Dual Feasible Solution to an LP with M Equalities in (l&M) Dual Iterations***by*Vinay Dharmadhikari**0099 The Earnings of Scientists, 1960-1970: Experience, Age and Vintage Effects***by*Yoram Weiss**0098 The Demand for Nursing Home Care: An Analysis of the Substitution Between Institutional and Noninstitutional Care***by*Barry R. Chiswick**0097 Human Wealth and Human Capital***by*Edward P. Lazear**0096 Specification Errors in Limited Dependent Variable Models***by*G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson**0095 Qualitative Information, Reputation, and Monopolistic Competition***by*Michael R. Darby & John R. Lott, Jr.**0094 Decision-Stage Method: Convergence Proof, Special Application, and Computation Experience***by*Vinay Dharmadhikari**0093 Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review***by*Robert J. Shiller**0092 Schooling as a Wage Depressant***by*Edward P. Lazear**0091 Autoregressive Spectrum Estimation Technique Allied to Quarterly Consumer Durables Expenditure Data***by*Warren G. Lavey**0090 The Maximum Likelihood Stage Least Squares Estimator in the Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Model***by*Takeshi Amemiya**0089 Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation***by*Robert J. Shiller**0088 Three-And-A-Half Million U.S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, An Explanation of Unemployment, 1934-1941***by*Michael R. Darby**0087 Exports and Foreign Investment in the Pharmaceutical Industry***by*Robert E. Lipsey & Merle Yahr Weiss**0086 THe Use of the Box Step Method in Discrete Optimization***by*Roy E. Marsten**0085 On the Identification of Time Varying Structures***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall**0084 A Comparison of Two Simple Methods for Obtaining Robust Confidence Intervals***by*Richard W. Hill**0083 Robust Line Estimation With Errors in Both Variables***by*Michael L. Brown**0082 Certain Aspects of Generalized Box-Jenkins Models***by*Richard W. Hill**0081 The Parental Bequest to Children***by*Arleen Leibowitz**0080 Inequality: Earnings vs. Human Wealth***by*Lee A. Lillard**0079 The Consumer Expenditure Function***by*Michael R. Darby**0078 Tables of Sample Size For the F-Test in One Way Analysis of Variance Designs***by*Richard W. Hill**0077 FIML Estimation of Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form Models***by*Kent D. Wall**0076 Robust Non-Linear Regression Using The Dogleg Algorithm***by*Roy E. Welsch & Richard A. Becker**0075 Implementing and Documenting Random Number Generators***by*David C. Hoaglin**0074 Variation Across Household in the Rate of Inflation***by*Robert T. Michael**0073 The Role of Physicians in the Production of Hospital Output***by*Mark Pauly & Mark A. Satterthwaite**0071 On the Theory of Productive Saving***by*Isaac Ehrlich & Uri Ben-Zion**0067 Human Capital and Labor Supply: A Synthesis***by*Alan S. Blinder & Yoram Weiss

### 1974

**0072 The Goodness of Match***by*Edward N. Wolff**0070 Analysis of Qualitative Variables***by*G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson**0069 Ridge Estimators for Distributed Lag Models***by*G.S. Maddala**0068 On a General Computer Algorithm for the Analysis of Models with Limited Dependent Variables***by*Forrest D. Nelson**0066 Detecting and Assessing the Problems Caused by Multi-Collinearity: A Useof the Singular-Value Decomposition***by*David A. Belsley & Virginia Klema**0065 Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form--A General Econometric Model***by*Kent D. Wall**0064 Data Analysis, Communication, and Control***by*Roy E. Welsch**0063 Censored Regression Models with Unobserved Stochastic Censoring Thresholds***by*Forrest D. Nelson**0062 The Private Enforcement of Law***by*William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner**0061 Factoring LP Block-Angular Bases***by*William Orchard-Hays**0060 The Variances of Regression Coefficient Estimates Using Aggregate Data***by*Roy E. Welsch & Edwin Kuh**0059 An Analysis of Firm Demand for Protection Against Crime***by*Ann P. Bartel**0058 A Monte Carlo Study of Two Robust Alternatives of Least Square Regression Estimation***by*Richard W. Hill & Paul W. Holland**0057 Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914***by*Thomas F. Cooley & Steven J. DeCanio**0056 Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macroeconometric Model***by*Thomas F. Cooley**0055 Social Costs of Monopoly and Regulation***by*Richard A. Posner**0054 Bilateral Trade as a Development Instrument Under Global Trade Restrictions***by*Karim Nashashibi**0053 Progress in Human Capital Analysis of the Distribution of Earnings***by*Jacob Mincer**0052 Transportation/Communication Considerations in the Location of Headquarters for Multi-Establishment Manufacturing Firms***by*Warren G. Lavey**0051 Age, Experience and Wage Growth***by*Edward P. Lazear**0050 Measuring the Effect of an Anti-Discrimination Program***by*Orley Ashenfelter & James J. Heckman**0049 Years and Intensity of Schooling Investing***by*Arleen Leibowitz**0048 Protection and Competitiveness in Egyptian Agriculture and Industry***by*Bent Hansen & Karim Nashashibi**0047 The Distribution of Earnings and Human Wealth in Cycle Context***by*Lee A. Lillard**0046 The Singular Value Analysis in Matrix Computation***by*Richard A. Becker & Neil Kaden & Virginia Klema**0045 The Incubator Hypothesis: Evidence from Five Cities***by*Robert A. Leone & Raymond Struyk**0044 The Statistical Analysis of Local Structure in Social Networks***by*Paul W. Holland & Samuel Leinhardt**0043 Graphics for Data Analysis***by*Roy E. Welsch**0042 A Theory of Social Interactions***by*Gary S. Becker**0041 Theories of Economic Regulation***by*Richard A. Posner**0040 Legality and Reality: Some Evidence on Criminal Procedure***by*William M. Landes**0039 Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages***by*Jacob Mincer**0038 A General Algorithm for Simultaneous Estimation of Constant and Randomly-Varying Parameters in Lineal Relations***by*Alexander H. Sarris**0037 Interpreting Spectral Analyses in Terms of Time-Domain Models***by*Robert F. Engle**0036 Economic Theories of Fertility: What do They Explain?***by*Warren C. Sanderson**0035 Changes in the Recession Behavior of Wholesale Prices: The 1920s and Post World War II***by*Phillip Cagan**0034 Estimation of a Stochastic Model of Reproduction: An Econometric Approach***by*James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis**0033 Inflation and Market Structure 1967-1973***by*Phillip Cagan**0032 Operational Time and Seasonality in Distributed Lag Estimation***by*Peter K. Clark**0031 Price Expectations and Household's Demand for Financial Assets***by*Lester D. Taylor**0030 The Timing and Spacing of Births and Women's Labor Force Participation: An Economic Analysis***by*Sue Goetz Ross**0029 Male-Female Differences in Wages and Employment: A Specific Human Capital Model***by*Elisabeth M. Landes**0028 The Wealth Effect in Occupational Choice***by*Yoram Weiss**0027 Production Within the Household***by*Arleen Leibowitz**0026 Migration Flows and Their Determinants: A Comparative Study of Internal Migration in Italy and the U.S.A***by*Swarnjit S. Arora

### 1973

**0025 The Covariance Structure of Earnings and the On the Job Training Hypothesis***by*John C. Hause**0024 Optimal Adaptive Control Methods for Structurally Varying Systems***by*Alexander H. Sarris & Michael Athans**0023 What Happened During the Baby Boom? New Estimates of Age and Parity: Specific Birth Probabilities for American Women***by*Warren C. Sanderson**0022 The Correlation Between Health and Schooling***by*Michael Grossman**0021 Contraception and Fertility: Household Production Under Uncertainty***by*Robert T. Michael & Robert J. Willis**0020 Short-Run and Long-Run Prospects for Female Earnings***by*Victor R. Fuchs**0019 Utilization of Surgical Manpower in A Prepaid Group Practice***by*Edward F. X. Hughes & Eugene M. Lewit & Richard N. Watkins & Richard Handschin**0018 The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death***by*Isaac Ehrlich**0017 Schooling, Ability, Non Pecuniary Rewards, Socioeconomic Background and the Lifetime Distribution of Earnings***by*Paul J. Taubman**0016 Monte Carlo Techniques in Studying Robust Estimators***by*David C. Hoaglin**0015 A Comparison of FIML and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model***by*Ray C. Fair**0014 The Effects on Income of Type of College Attended***by*Lewis C. Solmon & Paul Wachtel**0013 Wage Comparisons -A Selectivity Bias***by*Reuben Gronau**0012 Citizen Rights and the Cost of Law Enforcement***by*Melvin Reder**0011 Weighted Ridge Regression: Combining Ridge and Robust Regression Methods***by*Paul W. Holland**0010 Monte Carlo for Robust Regression: The Swindle Unmasked***by*Paul W. Holland**0009 From Age-Earnings Profiles to the Distribution of Earnings and Human Wealth***by*Lee A. Lillard**0008 Multinational Firms and the Factor Intensity of Trade***by*Robert E. Lipsey & Merle Yahr Weiss**0007 The Definition and Impact of College Quality***by*Lewis C. Solmon**0006 A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States: Preliminary Results***by*Victor Zarnowitz**0005 A Life Cycle Family Model***by*James P. Smith**0004 Human Capital Life Cycle of Earnings Models: A Specific Solution and Estimation***by*Lee A. Lillard**0003 Error Components Regression Models and Their Applications***by*Swarnjit S. Arora**0002 Hospital Utilization: An Analysis of SMSA Differences in Hospital Admission Rates, Occupancy Rates and Bed Rates***by*Barry R. Chiswick**0001 Education, Information, and Efficiency***by*Finis Welch