IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12736.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of the Ageing European Population on Economic Growth and Budgets: Implications for Immigration and Other Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Martin S. Feldstein

Abstract

The ageing of the population presents a major fiscal challenge for the countries of Europe. The combination of increased longevity and a reduced birth rate will directly reduce the growth rates of the European economies by slowing the growth of the capital stock and by weakening the productivity of the labor force. This slower growth of GDP means a smaller tax base and less tax revenue. In addition, the current tax-financed systems of social pensions and health care will require substantial increases in the already high tax rates. The analysis in this paper shows that the common prescription of increased immigration would do little to reduce the future fiscal burden. The increased revenue from a large rise in immigration would finance only a small part of the coming rise in the cost of pension and health benefits. The only alternative to significantly higher tax rates or substantially lower retirement income is to shift from a pure tax-financed system to a mixed system that supplements the tax financed benefits with benefits based on increased saving financial investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin S. Feldstein, 2006. "The Effects of the Ageing European Population on Economic Growth and Budgets: Implications for Immigration and Other Policies," NBER Working Papers 12736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12736
    Note: LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12736.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2008. "The Political-Economy Role of the Social Security System in Sustaining Migration," 2008 Meeting Papers 150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Laura DIACONU (MAXIM), 2015. "Ageing Population: Comparative Analysis Among European Union States," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 50-59, March.
    3. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    4. Bermejo Patón, Fernando & Febrero Paños, Eladio & Uxó González, Jorge, 2015. "La sostenibilidad del sistema español de pensiones: Una aproximación alternativa/Sustainability of the Spanish Pension System: An Alternative View," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 783-800, Septiembr.
    5. Hisahiro Naito, 2014. "Pareto-improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 027, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. repec:vul:omefvu:v:8:y:2017:i:1:id:216 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2006. "Immigration and the Survival of Social Security: A Political Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 12800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hisahiro Naito, "undated". "Pareto-improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Working Papers e81, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    9. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2007. "The Political-Economy Positive Role of the Social Security System in Sustaining Immigration (But Not Vice Versa)," NBER Working Papers 13598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Razin, Assaf & Sand, Edith, 2007. "The Role of Immigration in Sustaining the Social Security System: A Political Economy Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hisahiro Naito, 2013. "Pareto-improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2013-004, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12736. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.