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Testing the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
  2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Small sample properties of alternative tests for martingale difference hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 151-154, February.
  3. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
  4. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
  5. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
  6. Noda, Akihiko, 2016. "A test of the adaptive market hypothesis using a time-varying AR model in Japan," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 66-71.
  7. Jacek Karasinski, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Weak-Form Informational Efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Wplyw wybuchu epidemii COVID-19 na efektywnosc informacyjna Gieldy Papierow Wartosciowych w Warszawie w formie slabej)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(37), pages 15-28.
  8. Regis Augusto Ely, 2011. "Returns Predictability and Stock Market Efficiency in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 571-584.
  9. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
  10. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John C., 2011. "The random-walk behavior of the Euro exchange rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 158-162, September.
  11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jessica Fouilloux, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II," Post-Print hal-00797491, HAL.
  12. Vuong, Quan-Hoang, 2003. "Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium," OSF Preprints ahrjd, Center for Open Science.
  13. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:46:y:2008:i::p:969-1000 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Verheyden, Tim & De Moor, Lieven & Van den Bossche, Filip, 2015. "Towards a new framework on efficient markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-308.
  15. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Adaptive markets hypothesis for Islamic stock indices: Evidence from Dow Jones size and sector-indices," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 100-112.
  16. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
  17. Montagnoli, Alberto & de Vries, Frans P., 2010. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1331-1336, November.
  18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2014. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 537-554, October.
  19. Li, Z. Merrick & Yang, Xiye, 2026. "Multi-horizon test for market frictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
  20. Am鬩e Charles & Olivier Darn頍 & Jae H. Kim & Etienne Redor, 2016. "Stock exchange mergers and market efficiency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 576-589, February.
  21. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
  22. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
  23. Axel Grossmann & Emiliano Giudici & Marc Simpson, 2014. "Euro conversion and return dynamics of European financial markets: a frequency domain approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 1-26, January.
  24. João A. Bastos, 2025. "A Deep Learning Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1993-2001, September.
  25. Aneta Dyakova & Graham Smith, 2013. "The evolution of stock market predictability in Bulgaria," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 805-816, May.
  26. Navaz Naghavi & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Devinder Kaur, 2018. "Financial Liberalization And Stock Market Efficiency: Measuring The Threshold Effects Of Governance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-24, December.
  27. Carmen López-Martín & Sonia Benito Muela & Raquel Arguedas, 2021. "Efficiency in cryptocurrency markets: new evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 403-431, September.
  28. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Claudia Kirch & Simos G. Meintanis, 2017. "Fourier--type tests involving martingale difference processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 468-492, April.
  29. Kenichi Hirayama & Akihiko Noda, 2019. "Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in the Prewar and Wartime Japanese Stock Market, 1924-1943," Papers 1911.04059, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  30. Linton, Oliver & Smetanina, Ekaterina, 2016. "Testing the martingale hypothesis for gross returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 664-689.
  31. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
  32. Madhur Bhatia, 2024. "Impact of the Local and the Global Crises on Stock Market Efficiency," Millennial Asia, , vol. 15(4), pages 572-596, December.
  33. Lim, Kian-Ping & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Trade openness and the informational efficiency of emerging stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2228-2238, September.
  34. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
  35. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland, 2018. "Price discovery of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and beyond," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 58-61.
  36. Huai-Long Shi & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Time-varying return predictability in the Chinese stock market," Papers 1611.04090, arXiv.org.
  37. Biswabhusan Bhuyan & Subhamitra Patra & Ranjan Kumar Bhuian, 2020. "Market Adaptability and Evolving Predictability of Stock Returns: An Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 605-619, December.
  38. Junshu Jiang & Jordan Richards & Raphael Huser & David Bolin, 2024. "The Efficient Tail Hypothesis: An Extreme Value Perspective on Market Efficiency," Papers 2408.06661, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
  39. Dobija, Dorota & Klimczak, Karol Marek, 2010. "Development of accounting in Poland: Market efficiency and the value relevance of reported earnings," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 356-374, September.
  40. Amairi, Haifa & Zantour, Ahlem & Saadi, Samir, 2021. "Information dissemination and price discovery," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  41. Amina Baba & Sana Ben Kebaier & Anna Creti, 2024. "How efficient are natural gas markets in practice? A wavelet-based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 623-677, March.
  42. Jain, Pawan & Xue, Wenjun, 2017. "Global investigation of return autocorrelation and its determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 200-217.
  43. Graham Smith, 2012. "The changing and relative efficiency of European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 689-708, September.
  44. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
  45. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2016. "The Relative Predictability of Stock Markets in the Americas," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 131-142, April.
  46. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
  47. Bohl, Martin T. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2021. "Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  48. repec:hal:journl:hal-01598139 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 27-35, January.
  50. Navaz Naghavi & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between financial openness and informational efficiency -- does the quality of institution matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 674-685, March.
  51. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Pyun, Chong Soo & Kim, Daewon, 2012. "Are exchange rate movements predictable in Asia-Pacific markets? Evidence of random walk and martingale difference processes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 221-231.
  52. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2019. "A Survey on Efficiency and Profitable Trading Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
  53. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
  54. Tran, Vu Le & Leirvik, Thomas, 2019. "A simple but powerful measure of market efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 141-151.
  55. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
  56. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
  57. Manahov, Viktor & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "The efficiency of Bitcoin: A strongly typed genetic programming approach to smart electronic Bitcoin markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  58. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Risk prediction management and weak form market efficiency in Eurozone financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 384-393.
  59. Jean-Baptiste Bonnier, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Post-Print hal-04299220, HAL.
  60. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
  61. Ozkan, Oktay, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  62. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
  63. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2017. "The Chicago Climate Exchange and market efficiency: an empirical analysis," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, October.
  64. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  65. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
  66. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H Kim, 2017. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis for Islamic Stock Portfolios: Evidence from Dow Jones Size and Sector-Indices," Post-Print hal-01526483, HAL.
  67. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen & Jun Deng & Qi Fu, 2025. "Price Discovery and Efficiency in Uniswap Liquidity Pools," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 1023-1048, August.
  68. Ali Almail & Fahad Almudhaf, 2017. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from three centuries of UK data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 48-53.
  69. Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
  70. Stefano Martinazzi & Daniele Regoli & Andrea Flori, 2020. "A Tale of Two Layers: The Mutual Relationship between Bitcoin and Lightning Network," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, December.
  71. Klaus Grobys & Yao Han & James W. Kolari, 2023. "Better Not Forget: On the Memory of S&P 500 Survivor Stock Companies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, February.
  72. Pawan Jain & Wen-Jun Xue, 2017. "Global Investigation of Return Autocorrelation and its Determinants," Working Papers 1704, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  73. Wang, Qian & Wu, Sitong & Huang, Peng & Hueng, C. James, 2025. "The influence of market liquidity on the efficiency of China's pilot carbon markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  74. Md Lutfur Rahman & Mahbub Khan & Samuel A. Vigne & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 162-186, January.
  75. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
  76. Manahov, Viktor & Li, Mingnan, 2025. "The digitalisation of the real estate market: New evidence from the most prominent crypto hacker attacks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  77. Zargar, Faisal Nazir & Kumar, Dilip, 2019. "Informational inefficiency of Bitcoin: A study based on high-frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 344-353.
  78. Dzung Phan Tran Trung & Hung Pham Quang, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Vietnamese Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, May.
  79. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
  80. Bohl, Martin T. & Irwin, Scott H. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2023. "The impact of financialization on the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  81. Aneta Dyakova & Graham Smith, 2013. "Bulgarian stock market relative predictability: BSE-Sofia stocks and South East European markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1257-1271, August.
  82. Jian Zhou & Jin Man Lee, 2013. "Adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from the REIT market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 1649-1662, November.
  83. Kim, Jae & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Stanley, T. D., 2014. "Market efficiency in Asian and Australasian stock markets: a fresh look at the evidence," Working Papers eco_2014_9, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
  84. Kenichi Hirayama & Akihiko Noda, 2025. "Measuring the time‐varying market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market, 1924–1943," Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 131-159, March.
  85. Daeyun Kang & Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb, 2025. "Bitcoin as a financial asset: a survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
  86. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Katherine Julieth Sierra Su�rez & V�ctor Alfonso Rueda Ortiz, 2015. "Análisis comparativo de eficiencia entre Brasil, México y Estados Unidos," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 7(2), pages 341-357.
  87. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M., 2023. "The efficiency of the London Gold Fixing: From Gold Standard to hoarded commodity (1919-68)," eabh Papers 23-01, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
  88. Hřebačka, Viktor, 2025. "Analyzing market efficiency: The role of business cycles, risk aversion, and Occam’s razor in the Adaptive Market Hypothesis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  89. Xuexin WANG, 2021. "Generalized Spectral Tests for High Dimensional Multivariate Martingale Difference Hypotheses," Working Papers 2021-11-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  90. Kinga Niemczak & Graham Smith, 2013. "Middle Eastern stock markets: absolute, evolving and relative efficiency," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 181-198, February.
  91. Sashikanta Khuntia & J. K. Pattanayak, 2020. "Evolving Efficiency of Exchange Rate Movement: An Evidence from Indian Foreign Exchange Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 956-969, August.
  92. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2025. "Wine market efficiency: Is glass half full or half empty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  93. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
  94. Muneer Shaik & S. Maheswaran, 2017. "Market Efficiency of ASEAN Stock Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 109-122, February.
  95. Walid Mensi & Anoop S. Kumar & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Asymmetric multifractality and dynamic efficiency in DeFi markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 280-297, June.
  96. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & John C. Nankervis & Periklis Kougoulis & Jerry Coakley, 2015. "Generalized Variance-Ratio Tests in the Presence of Statistical Dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 687-705, September.
  97. Martin Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Christoph Sulewski, 2019. "Speculation and the Informational Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets," CQE Working Papers 8919, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  98. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "The Effects of the Brazilian ADRs Program on Domestic Market Efficiency," Working Papers Series 43, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  99. Herrera, Gabriel Paes & Constantino, Michel & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Pistori, Hemerson & Su, Jen-Je & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2019. "Long-term forecast of energy commodities price using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 214-221.
  100. Akbar, Muhammad & Ullah, Ihsan & Ali, Shahid & Rehman, Naser, 2024. "Adaptive market hypothesis: A comparison of Islamic and conventional stock indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 460-477.
  101. Nie, Chun-Xiao, 2025. "Unveiling complex nonlinear dynamics in stock markets through topological data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 680(C).
  102. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
  103. Yann Ferrat & Frédéric Daty & Radu Burlacu, 2023. "Screening: Value enhancing or diminishing?," Business Ethics, the Environment & Responsibility, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 358-370, January.
  104. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
  105. Afees A. Salisu & Taofeek O. Ayinde, 2016. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) with Structural Breaks: Evidence from Foreign Exchanges of Nigeria and South Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 342-359, September.
  106. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
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