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Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  2. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
  3. Bürgi, Constantin & Ortiz, Julio L., 2026. "Overreaction through anchoring," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 512-526.
  4. Machado, Caio, 2023. "Managing Overreaction During a Run," MPRA Paper 117896, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2023.
  5. Cassella, Stefano & Chen, Te-Feng & Gulen, Huseyin & Liu, Yan, 2025. "Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices: An augmented present-value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  6. Lin Li, 2025. "The Role of Intangible Investment in Predicting Stock Returns: Six Decades of Evidence," Papers 2505.16336, arXiv.org.
  7. Merkle, Christoph & Sextroh, Christoph J., 2021. "Value and momentum from investors’ perspective: Evidence from professionals’ risk-ratings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 159-178.
  8. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
  9. Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust identification of investor beliefs," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 33130-33140, December.
  10. Marta Cota, 2023. "Extrapolative Income Expectations and Retirement Savings," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp751, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  11. Kiran Batool, 2021. "Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Index: Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Affairs (IJBEA), Sana N. Maswadeh, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12.
  12. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  13. Luojia Hu & Xing Huang & Andrei Simonov, 2020. "Credit Score Doctors," Working Paper Series WP 2020-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Miao Liu, 2022. "Assessing Human Information Processing in Lending Decisions: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(2), pages 607-651, May.
  15. Constantin Charles & Cary Frydman & Mete Kilic, 2024. "Insensitive Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2473-2503, August.
  16. Pedro Bordalo & Marco Tabellini & David Y. Yang, 2020. "Issue Salience and Political Stereotypes," NBER Working Papers 27194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  18. Clements, Michael P., 2025. "Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  19. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  20. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  21. Benjamin Enke & Frederik Schwerter & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Associative Memory and Belief Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7916, CESifo.
  22. Benjamin Christoffersen & Arvid Hoffmann & Zwetelina Iliewa & Lena Jaroszek, 2025. "Experience Effects on Wall Street vs. Main Street: Field and Lab Evidence of Context Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_684, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  23. Linying Lv, 2025. "Do Sell-side Analyst Reports Have Investment Value?," Papers 2502.20489, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
  24. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
  25. Carlo A. Favero & Alessandro Melone, 2019. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor Models," Working Papers 651, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  26. Jules H van Binsbergen & Xiao Han & Alejandro Lopez-Lira, 2023. "Man versus Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(6), pages 2361-2396.
  27. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  28. Kale, Arati & Kale, Devendra, 2023. "Do exogenous economic crises change investors’ response to earnings announcements?: A detailed review using the data from COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  29. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
  30. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Expectational reference points and belief formation: Field evidence from financial analysts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  31. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
  33. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial stability and macroprudential regulation under diagnostic expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 101.
  34. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  35. Alex Kim & Maximilian Muhn & Valeri Nikolaev, 2024. "Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models," Papers 2407.17866, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  36. Constantin Charles & Cary D. Frydman & Mete Kilic, 2022. "Insensitive Investors," CESifo Working Paper Series 10067, CESifo.
  37. Li, Ye & Wang, Chen, 2025. "The Information Cliff," SocArXiv bf8cx_v1, Center for Open Science.
  38. Charles, Constantin & Frydman, Cary & Kilic, Mete, 2024. "Insensitive investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120788, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  39. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sebastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 19239, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  40. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 161, Peruvian Economic Association.
  41. Nikolai Roussanov & Hongxun Ruan & Yanhao Wei & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Marketing Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 3045-3094.
  42. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
  43. Da, Zhi & Huang, Xing & Jin, Lawrence J., 2021. "Extrapolative beliefs in the cross-section: What can we learn from the crowds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 175-196.
  44. Pei Kuang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," 2019 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  45. Stefan Nagel, 2026. "Experiences, expectations, and asset prices," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 11-34, January.
  46. Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2025. "The AH premium: A tale of “siamese twin” stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  47. Azevedo, Vitor, 2023. "Analysts’ underreaction and momentum strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  48. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Haliassos, Michael, 2022. "Informative social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 246-263.
  50. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
  51. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  52. Cassella, Stefano & Chen, Te-Feng & Gulen, Huseyin & Liu, Yan, 2025. "Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices : An augmented present-value approac," Other publications TiSEM a19ca154-f344-4cd5-b2e5-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  53. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  54. Le Ma & Peter Wells, 2024. "Evaluation of Fair Value Relevance and Sensitivity to Valuation Assumptions," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(3), pages 419-445, September.
  55. Yen-Sheng Lee, 2022. "Representative Bias and Pairs Trade: Evidence From S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Indexes," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.
  56. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot, 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18259, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  57. Han, Leyla Jianyu, 2025. "Announcements, expectations, and stock returns with asymmetric information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  58. Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2025. "Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 657-685, March.
  59. Heinke, Steve & Olschewski, Sebastian & Rieskamp, Jörg, 2024. "Experiences, demand for risky investments, and implications for price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
  60. Chaudhry, Aditya, 2025. "The impact of prices on analyst cash flow expectations: Reconciling subjective beliefs data with rational discount rate variation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  61. Favero, Carlo A. & Melone, Alessandro, 2020. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor-Portfolio Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14417, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  62. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
  63. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2025. "Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations," Working Paper Series 2025-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  64. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/mqe122bu9lprrh0g2eloopgd is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Goutte, Maud-Rose, 2022. "Do actions speak louder than words? Evidence from microblogs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  66. Fei Qiu & Yinghao Sheng & Jienv Jin & Hao Li & Xiaojie Li, 2026. "The nominal share price anchor: A theoretical model of social norms and behavioral martingales in stock markets," Rationality and Society, , vol. 38(1), pages 102-134, February.
  67. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
  68. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2024. "Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1450-1484.
  69. Li, Lin & Liu, Kunyu & Li, Guoping, 2024. "What can analyst forecasts tell us about imperfect information?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1059-1073.
  70. He, Wei & Su, Zhiwei & Yu, Jianfeng, 2024. "Macroeconomic perceptions, financial constraints, and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  71. Giuseppe Matera, 2025. "Corporate Earnings Calls and Analyst Beliefs," Papers 2511.15214, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
  72. Ricardo Delao & Sean Myers, 2021. "Subjective Cash Flow and Discount Rate Expectations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1339-1387, June.
  73. Na, Seunghoon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2025. "Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  74. Marcus Biermann & Elsa Leromain, 2025. "The ripple effect: trade linkages and the stock market response to the Russia–Ukraine war," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(4), pages 1637-1660, November.
  75. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Duration‐Driven Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1393-1447, June.
  77. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Superstar Returns," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03881493, HAL.
  78. Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2022. "Game on: Social networks and markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1097-1119.
  79. Huang, Shiyang & Lee, Charles M.C. & Song, Yang & Xiang, Hong, 2022. "A frog in every pan: Information discreteness and the lead-lag returns puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 83-102.
  80. Weber, Martin & Kieren, Pascal & Mueller-Dethard, Jan, 2020. "Why so Negative? Belief Formation and Risk Taking in Boom and Bust Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14647, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  81. Yun Ke & Kin Lo & Jinfei Sheng & Jenny Li Zhang, 2023. "Do investors affect financial analysts’ behavior? Evidence from short sellers," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 199-224, March.
  82. Maenhout, Pascal J. & Vedolin, Andrea & Xing, Hao, 2025. "Robustness and dynamic sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  83. Zhang, Yue & Wang, Caiping & Chen, Yufei, 2024. "Foreign ownership, institutional distance and mutual fund performance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  84. Fontanier, Paul, 2025. "Optimal policy for behavioral financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  85. Pei Kuang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," Discussion Papers 19-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  86. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao, 2021. "Are disagreements agreeable? Evidence from information aggregation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 83-101.
  87. Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  88. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Zhu, Yandi & Zhang, Xinyu & Zhang, Yingguang, 2023. "Expectation disarray: Analysts' growth forecast anomaly in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  89. Lin Li, 2025. "The Role of Intangible Investment in Predicting Stock Returns: Six Decades of Evidence," Post-Print hal-05074264, HAL.
  90. Dmitry Novikov, 2026. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations in Russia and the US: Testing the Diagnostic Expectations Hypothesis," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 85(1), pages 35-62, March.
  91. Bro, Jeppe & Eriksen, Jonas N., 2025. "Subjective expectations and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  92. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
  93. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion & Candace E Jens & Stefano Rossi, 2024. "Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(11), pages 3335-3385.
  94. Jankauskas, Tomas, 2023. "Essays in empirical finance," Other publications TiSEM 4c319f87-ba97-44be-897e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  95. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Briggs, Joseph & Cesarini, David & Lindqvist, Erik & Östling, Robert, 2021. "Windfall gains and stock market participation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 57-83.
  97. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & La Porta, Rafael & Shleifer, Andrei, 2025. "Finance without exotic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
  98. Guo, Li & Li, Frank Weikai & John Wei, K.C., 2020. "Security analysts and capital market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 204-230.
  99. Zhou, Ye & Huang, Difang & Chen, Muzi & Wang, Yunlong & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2024. "How did small business respond to unexpected shocks? Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  100. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  101. Bucciol, Alessandro & Easaw, Joshy & Trucchi, Serena, 2025. "Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
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