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Exceptional Paper--Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

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Cited by:

  1. Morgan Bazilian & Debabrata Chattopadhyay, 2015. "Considering Power System Planning in Fragile and Conflict States," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1530, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Petersen, Elizabeth H. & Fraser, Rob W., 2000. "Grower perceptions of the impact of protein premiums and discounts for wheat," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123725, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. King, Robert P., 1979. "Operational Techniques for Applied Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty," AAEA Fellows - Dissertations and Theses, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 181951, December.
  4. Moors, J.J.A. & Schuld, M.H. & Mathijssen, A.C.A., 1995. "A new method for assessing judgmental distributions," Research Memorandum FEW 708, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  5. Browne, Glenn J. & Pitts, Mitzi G., 2004. "Stopping rule use during information search in design problems," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 208-224, November.
  6. Hardaker, J. B., 1982. "Fundamental Aspects Of Risk And Uncertainty In Agriculture," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 21(2), October.
  7. Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi, 1985. "Bayesian inference research in auditing: Some methodological suggestions," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 76-94, September.
  8. Eidman, V., 1989. "Quantifying and managing risk in agriculture," 1989 Annual Conference, September 25-27, Bloemfontein, South Africa 314723, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  9. Thomas W. Keelin & Bradford W. Powley, 2011. "Quantile-Parameterized Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 206-219, September.
  10. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
  11. Z. A. Collier & D. Wang & J. T. Vogel & E. K. Tatham & I. Linkov, 2013. "Sustainable roofing technology under multiple constraints: a decision-analytical approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 261-271, June.
  12. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.
  13. Simone Cerroni & Sandra Notaro & W. Douglass Shaw, 2011. "Do Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions Affect the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An Experimental Investigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  14. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
  15. Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1978. "Economic framework for information systems," Other publications TiSEM 45d15745-54b7-49ee-8b4e-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  16. Beccue, Phillip C. & Huntington, Hillard G. & Leiby, Paul N. & Vincent, Kenneth R., 2018. "An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 456-469.
  17. Hiba Baroud & Jose E. Ramirez‐Marquez & Kash Barker & Claudio M. Rocco, 2014. "Stochastic Measures of Network Resilience: Applications to Waterway Commodity Flows," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
  18. Gerchak, Yigal & Grosfeld-Nir, Abraham, 1998. "Multiple lot-sizing, and value of probabilistic information, in production to order of an uncertain size," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 191-197, September.
  19. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
  20. William F. Wright, 1988. "Empirical comparison of subjective probability elicitation methods," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 47-57, September.
  21. Dennis J. Dunning & Steve Lockfort & Quentin E. Ross & Phillip C. Beccue & Jeffrey S. Stonebraker, 2001. "New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of Its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 121-135, October.
  22. William F. Wright, 1988. "Comparaison empirique des méthodes d'inférence de probabilités subjectives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 58-69, September.
  23. Jeffrey S. Stonebraker & Donald L. Keefer, 2009. "OR Practice---Modeling Potential Demand for Supply-Constrained Drugs: A New Hemophilia Drug at Bayer Biological Products," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 19-31, February.
  24. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 456-464.
  25. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Raffaelli, Roberta & Shaw, Douglass W., 2013. "The incorporation of subjective risks into choice experiments to test scenario adjustment," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149894, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  26. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
  27. Madjid Tavana, 2003. "CROSS: A Multicriteria Group-Decision-Making Model for Evaluating and Prioritizing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 40-56, June.
  28. Matthias Meyer & Cathérine Grisar & Felix Kuhnert, 2011. "The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-105, September.
  29. D. Warner North, 2020. "Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Causal Analysis, and Economics: A Personal Perspective from More Than 40 years Experience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2178-2190, November.
  30. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1985. "Farmers and Risk," 1985 Conference, August 26-September 4, 1985, Malaga, Spain 183026, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  31. Perepolkin, Dmytro & Lindsröm, Erik & Sahlin, Ullrika, 2023. "Quantile-parameterized distributions for expert knowledge elicitation," OSF Preprints tq3an, Center for Open Science.
  32. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 201-215.
  33. Cerroni, Simone & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 72-84.
  34. Nadkarni, Sucheta & Shenoy, Prakash P., 2001. "A Bayesian network approach to making inferences in causal maps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 479-498, February.
  35. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
  36. Goodwin, Paul, 2005. "Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 388-402, June.
  37. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2009. "Evaluating Quantile Assessments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1297, October.
  38. Robin L. Dillon & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Seth D. Guikema, 2003. "Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, June.
  39. Park, Kyung S. & Lee, Jae in, 2008. "A new method for estimating human error probabilities: AHP–SLIM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(4), pages 578-587.
  40. M Tavana & M A Sodenkamp, 2010. "A fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis model for advanced technology assessment at Kennedy Space Center," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1459-1470, October.
  41. Björkqvist, Olof & Idefeldt, Jim & Larsson, Aron, 2010. "Risk assessment of new pricing strategies in the district heating market: A case study at Sundsvall Energi AB," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2171-2178, May.
  42. Anderson, Barry F. & Settle, John W., 1996. "The influence of portfolio characteristics and investment period on investment choice," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 343-358, June.
  43. Aurélien Baillon, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Probabilities Through Exchangeable Events: An Advantage and a Limitation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 76-87, June.
  44. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  45. Zh. A. Dayev & Ye. T. Nurushev, 2022. "Reduction of production risks by improving the method of failure mode and effect analysis," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(1), pages 278-288, February.
  46. Guikema, Seth D., 2007. "Formulating informative, data-based priors for failure probability estimation in reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 490-502.
  47. Gillenwater, Michael, 2013. "Probabilistic decision model of wind power investment and influence of green power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1111-1125.
  48. Jeffrey S. Stonebraker, 2002. "How Bayer Makes Decisions to Develop New Drugs," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 77-90, December.
  49. Timothy McDaniels & Tamsin Mills & Robin Gregory & Dan Ohlson, 2012. "Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2098-2112, December.
  50. Don N. Kleinmuntz & George Wu, 2006. "From the Special Issue Editors... Special Issue on Psychology and Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 121-123, September.
  51. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
  52. Ali E. Abbas & David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu & Ryan Haggerty, 2008. "A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 190-202, December.
  53. López Martín, M.M. & García García, C.B. & García Pérez, J. & Sánchez Granero, M.A., 2012. "An alternative for robust estimation in Project Management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 443-451.
  54. Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha & Troutt, Marvin D., 2003. "Genetic search over probability spaces," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 333-347, January.
  55. Dewispelare, Aaron R. & Herren, L. Tandy & Clemen, Robert T., 1995. "The use of probability elicitation in the high-level nuclear waste regulation program," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 5-24, March.
  56. Jiang, R. & Zhang, W. J. & Ji, P., 2003. "Required characteristics of statistical distribution models for life cycle cost estimation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-194, February.
  57. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2013. "How many bad apples are in a bunch? An experimental investigation of perceived pesticide residue risks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 112-123.
  58. King, Robert P., 1983. "Crop Insurance Research Needs," 1983: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 28-30, 1983, San Antonio, Texas 271715, Regional Research Projects > S-180: Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms: Perspectives and Research Issues.
  59. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
  60. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
  61. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
  62. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.
  63. Anil Gaba & W. Kip Viscusi, 1998. "Differences in Subjective Risk Thresholds: Worker Groups as an Example," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(6), pages 801-811, June.
  64. Moors, J.J.A. & Schuld, M.H. & Mathijssen, A.C.A., 1995. "A new method for assessing judgmental distributions," Other publications TiSEM 7ad88666-4ed3-42bf-a563-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  65. Lau, Hon-Shiang & Somarajan, C., 1995. "A proposal on improved procedures for estimating task-time distributions in PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 39-52, August.
  66. Melvin Novick, 1980. "Statistics as psychometrics," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 411-424, December.
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