Risk assessment of new pricing strategies in the district heating market: A case study at Sundsvall Energi AB
The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy-related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer-oriented approach with predetermined prices under a longer periods, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with predetermined prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the new price structure is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer based on short-run marginal cost. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company cannot transfer all of the risk of predetermined prices to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties cannot be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article, we propose a methodology, implemented in prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andersson, Roland & Bohman, Mats, 1985. "Short- and long-run marginal cost pricing : On their alleged equivalence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 279-288, October.
- Sjödin, Jörgen & Henning, Dag, 2004. "Calculating the marginal costs of a district-heating utility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-18, May.
- Wright, George & Lawrence, Michael J. & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "The role and validity of judgment in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, March.
- Danielson, Mats & Ekenberg, Love, 1998. "A framework for analysing decisions under risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 474-484, February.
- Carl S. Spetzler & Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein, 1975. "Exceptional Paper--Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 340-358, November.
- Danielson, Mats & Ekenberg, Love, 2007. "Computing upper and lower bounds in interval decision trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 808-816, September.
- Bohman, Mats & Andersson, Roland, 1987. "Pricing cogenerated electricity and heat in local communities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 333-356, August.
- Della Valle, Anna P., 1988. "Short-run versus long-run marginal cost pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 283-286, October.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:2171-2178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.