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Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

  • James E. Smith

    ()

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708.)

  • Detlof von Winterfeldt

    ()

    (School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089.)

Registered author(s):

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Management Science and offer some comments on the current state of the field.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0243
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 561-574

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:50:y:2004:i:5:p:561-574
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    3. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    4. In Jae Myung & Sridhar Ramamoorti & Andrew D. Bailey, Jr., 1996. "Maximum Entropy Aggregation of Expert Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(10), pages 1420-1436, October.
    5. Donald L. Keefer, 1991. "Resource Allocation Models with Risk Aversion and Probabilistic Dependence: Offshore Oil and Gas Bidding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 377-395, April.
    6. James S. Dyer & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1979. "Group Preference Aggregation Rules Based on Strength of Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(9), pages 822-832, September.
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    14. Robert L. Winkler & Roy M. Poses, 1993. "Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1526-1543, December.
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    16. Ralph L. Keeney & Rakesh K. Sarin & Robert L. Winkler, 1984. "Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 518-528, April.
    17. George P. Huber, 1974. "Multi-Attribute Utility Models: A Review of Field and Field-Like Studies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(10), pages 1393-1402, June.
    18. Michael Bacharach, 1975. "Group Decisions in the Face of Differences of Opinion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 182-191, October.
    19. Charles M. Harvey, 1985. "Decision Analysis Models for Social Attitudes Toward Inequity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1199-1212, October.
    20. James S. Dyer, 1990. "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 249-258, March.
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    27. James K. Sebenius, 1992. "Negotiation Analysis: A Characterization and Review," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 18-38, January.
    28. Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 479-488, April.
    29. James S. Dyer, 1990. "A Clarification of "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 274-275, March.
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    31. Peter Wakker & Daniel Deneffe, 1996. "Eliciting von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities When Probabilities Are Distorted or Unknown," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(8), pages 1131-1150, August.
    32. Dennis V. Lindley, 1986. "Another Look at an Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 303-306, March.
    33. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1993. "Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 501-515, April.
    34. Thomas L. Saaty, 1990. "An Exposition of the AHP in Reply to the Paper "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 259-268, March.
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    39. Robert L. Winkler, 1994. "Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(11), pages 1395-1405, November.
    40. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Risk Sharing and Group Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(11), pages 1221-1235, November.
    41. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
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    43. Gregory S. Parnell & Harry W. Conley & Jack A. Jackson & Lee J. Lehmkuhl & John M. Andrew, 1998. "Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1336-1350, October.
    44. John Winsor Pratt & Richard Jay Zeckhauser, 1990. "The Fair and Efficient Division of the Winsor Family Silver," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(11), pages 1293-1301, November.
    45. Samuel E. Bodily, 1978. "Police Sector Design Incorporating Preferences of Interest Groups for Equality and Efficiency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(12), pages 1301-1313, August.
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    49. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
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    54. D. Warner North & Donald N. Stengel, 1982. "Decision Analysis of Program Choices in Magnetic Fusion Energy Development," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 276-288, March.
    55. Mark J. Schervish, 1986. "Comments on Some Axioms for Combining Expert Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 306-312, March.
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    58. Joseph B. Kadane & Patrick D. Larkey, 1982. "Subjective Probability and the Theory of Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 113-120, February.
    59. H. V. Ravinder & Don N. Kleinmuntz & James S. Dyer, 1988. "The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 186-199, February.
    60. Ralph L. Keeney, 1976. "A Group Preference Axiomatization with Cardinal Utility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 140-145, October.
    61. Peter C. Fishburn & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1991. "Dispersive Equity and Social Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(7), pages 751-769, July.
    62. Coleen K. Ford & Ralph L. Keeney & Craig W. Kirkwood, 1979. "Evaluating Methodologies: A Procedure and Application to Nuclear Power Plant Siting Methodologies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 1-10, January.
    63. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
    64. Ralph L. Keeney & Craig W. Kirkwood, 1975. "Group Decision Making Using Cardinal Social Welfare Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 430-437, December.
    65. Mark McCord & Richard de Neufville, 1986. ""Lottery Equivalents": Reduction of the Certainty Effect Problem in Utility Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 56-60, January.
    66. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1990. "Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(7), pages 767-779, July.
    67. David E. Bell, 1979. "Multiattribute Utility Functions: Decompositions Using Interpolation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(8), pages 744-753, August.
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    69. Martin Weber & Franz Eisenführ & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1988. "The Effects of Splitting Attributes on Weights in Multiattribute Utility Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 431-445, April.
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