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Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

  • James E. Smith

    ()

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708.)

  • Detlof von Winterfeldt

    ()

    (School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089.)

Registered author(s):

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Management Science and offer some comments on the current state of the field.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0243
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 561-574

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:50:y:2004:i:5:p:561-574
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    10. Mark McCord & Richard de Neufville, 1986. ""Lottery Equivalents": Reduction of the Certainty Effect Problem in Utility Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 56-60, January.
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    28. James S. Dyer, 1990. "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 249-258, March.
    29. George P. Huber, 1974. "Multi-Attribute Utility Models: A Review of Field and Field-Like Studies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(10), pages 1393-1402, June.
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    31. Mark J. Schervish, 1986. "Comments on Some Axioms for Combining Expert Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 306-312, March.
    32. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    33. James S. Dyer & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1979. "Group Preference Aggregation Rules Based on Strength of Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(9), pages 822-832, September.
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    41. Samuel E. Bodily, 1978. "Police Sector Design Incorporating Preferences of Interest Groups for Equality and Efficiency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(12), pages 1301-1313, August.
    42. Peter A. Morris, 1977. "Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(7), pages 679-693, March.
    43. H. V. Ravinder & Don N. Kleinmuntz & James S. Dyer, 1988. "The Reliability of Subjective Probabilities Obtained Through Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 186-199, February.
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    50. Michael Bacharach, 1975. "Group Decisions in the Face of Differences of Opinion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 182-191, October.
    51. Ralph L. Keeney, 1972. "Utility Functions for Multiattributed Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5-Part-1), pages 276-287, January.
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    54. Gary E. Bolton & Kalyan Chatterjee & Kathleen L. McGinn, 2003. "How Communication Links Influence Coalition Bargaining: A Laboratory Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 583-598, May.
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    56. Ralph L. Keeney & Rakesh K. Sarin & Robert L. Winkler, 1984. "Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 518-528, April.
    57. In Jae Myung & Sridhar Ramamoorti & Andrew D. Bailey, Jr., 1996. "Maximum Entropy Aggregation of Expert Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(10), pages 1420-1436, October.
    58. Robert T. Clemen & Gregory W. Fischer & Robert L. Winkler, 2000. "Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1100-1115, August.
    59. Gregory S. Parnell & Harry W. Conley & Jack A. Jackson & Lee J. Lehmkuhl & John M. Andrew, 1998. "Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1336-1350, October.
    60. David E. Bell, 1979. "Multiattribute Utility Functions: Decompositions Using Interpolation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(8), pages 744-753, August.
    61. Martin Weber & Franz Eisenführ & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1988. "The Effects of Splitting Attributes on Weights in Multiattribute Utility Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 431-445, April.
    62. Robert L. Winkler, 1994. "Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(11), pages 1395-1405, November.
    63. Herbert Moskowitz & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1983. "Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 735-749, June.
    64. Peter C. Fishburn & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1997. "Fairness and Social Risk II: Aggregated Analyses," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 15-26, January.
    65. Robert L. Winkler & Roy M. Poses, 1993. "Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1526-1543, December.
    66. Ralph L. Keeney & Craig W. Kirkwood, 1975. "Group Decision Making Using Cardinal Social Welfare Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 430-437, December.
    67. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
    68. Joseph B. Kadane & Patrick D. Larkey, 1982. "Subjective Probability and the Theory of Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 113-120, February.
    69. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Risk Sharing and Group Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(11), pages 1221-1235, November.
    70. Martin Shubik, 1983. "Comment on "The Confusion of Is and Ought in Game Theoretic Contexts"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(12), pages 1380-1383, December.
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