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Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

Author

Listed:
  • Robert T. Clemen

    (College of Business Administration, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403)

  • Robert L. Winkler

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706)

Abstract

When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to their conformance (or lack thereof) to the unanimity principle and a more general compromise principle. In an analysis of a large set of probability forecast data from meteorology, we show how well the various models, when fit to the data, reflect the empirical pattern of conformance to these principles.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1990. "Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(7), pages 767-779, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:7:p:767-779
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sobel, Joel, 2014. "On the relationship between individual and group decisions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), January.
    2. Kornbluth, J. S. H., 1997. "Identifying feasible orderings for performance appraisal," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-334, June.
    3. Clemen, Robert T. & Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1995. "Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 133-145, March.
    4. D. Johnstone, 2007. "The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 153-203, September.
    5. Patrizio Frederic & Mario Di Bacco & Frank Lad, 2012. "Combining expert probabilities using the product of odds," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 605-619, October.
    6. Szwed, P. & Dorp, J. Rene van & Merrick, J.R.W. & Mazzuchi, T.A. & Singh, A., 2006. "A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 157-177, February.
    7. Joseph Lipscomb & Giovanni Parmigiani & Vic Hasselblad, 1998. "Combining Expert Judgment by Hierarchical Modeling: An Application to Physician Staffing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 149-161, February.
    8. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.

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