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Calibration and the Expert Problem

Author

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  • S. French

    (Department of Decision Theory, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom)

Abstract

A decision maker needs to give his subjective probability for a single event of interest, A. Being aware that he has little substantive knowledge of the factors affecting A, the decision maker asks an expert for advice. The expert gives his subjective probability for A. In the light of this information, how should the decision maker form his subjective probability? In particular, does it matter to the decision maker whether the expert is a well-calibrated probability assessor? In this paper these questions are explored and it is suggested that concepts such as calibration and refinement cannot usefully be defined independently of the decision maker.

Suggested Citation

  • S. French, 1986. "Calibration and the Expert Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 315-321, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:32:y:1986:i:3:p:315-321
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.32.3.315
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Irene Valsecchi, 2013. "The expert problem: a survey," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 303-331, November.
    2. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
    3. Paola Monari & Patrizia Agati, 2001. "Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 10(1), pages 81-97, January.
    4. Valsecchi, Irene, 2008. "Learning from Experts," International Energy Markets Working Papers 36756, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Ladha, Krishna K., 1995. "Information pooling through majority-rule voting: Condorcet's jury theorem with correlated votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-372, May.
    6. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
    7. Irene Valsecchi, 2008. "Learning from Experts," Working Papers 2008.35, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.

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