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An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks

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  • Beccue, Phillip C.
  • Huntington, Hillard G.
  • Leiby, Paul N.
  • Vincent, Kenneth R.

Abstract

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016–2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.

Suggested Citation

  • Beccue, Phillip C. & Huntington, Hillard G. & Leiby, Paul N. & Vincent, Kenneth R., 2018. "An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 456-469.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:456-469
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Beccue, Phillip C. & Huntington, Hillard G. & Leiby, Paul N. & Vincent, Kenneth R., 2018. "An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 456-469.
    3. Yuan, Meng & Zhang, Haoran & Wang, Bohong & Huang, Liqiao & Fang, Kai & Liang, Yongtu, 2020. "Downstream oil supply security in China: Policy implications from quantifying the impact of oil import disruption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Mu Li & Li Li & Wadim Strielkowski, 2019. "The Impact of Urbanization and Industrialization on Energy Security: A Case Study of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Chen, Sai & Zhang, Ming & Ding, Yueting & Nie, Rui, 2020. "Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2017. "OPEC and world oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 512-523.
    7. Chen, Sai & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Yanfang & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2022. "Study on the robustness of China's oil import network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    8. Liu, Zhen & Tang, Yuk Ming & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, Fengsheng & Iqbal, Wasim & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2021. "Incorporating strategic petroleum reserve and welfare losses: A way forward for the policy development of crude oil resources in South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil disruption; Risk analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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