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Citations for "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations"

by Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger

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  1. Wen, Yi, 2004. "Durable Goods Inventories and the Volatility of Production: Explaining the Less Volatile U.S. Economy," Working Papers 04-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  2. D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 0605, European Central Bank.
  3. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  4. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  5. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  6. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2010.
  8. Michael R. Pakko & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Taxes, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 32, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  10. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  12. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  13. Bullard, James B. & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Learning and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 134-150, November.
  15. Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 0334, European Central Bank.
  16. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, . "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  18. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries," Sciences Po publications 36, Sciences Po.
  19. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
  20. Marwan Chacra & Maral Kichian, 2004. "A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada," Working Papers 04-39, Bank of Canada.
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Chang-Jin Kim University of Washington,, ,Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 259, Society for Computational Economics.
  23. repec:dgr:uvatin:2008069 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
  25. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
  26. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2002. "Why Were Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Smaller in the 1990s?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  27. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  28. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  30. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006.
  31. Keith Sill, 2006. "Macroeconomic volatility and the equity premium," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  32. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
  34. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  35. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 158, Society for Computational Economics.
  36. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
  37. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
  38. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2002. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Staff Reports 156, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  39. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2011. "Conditional Markov chain and its application in economic time series analysis," MPRA Paper 33369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
  41. Siem Jan Koopman & Soon Yip Wong, 2006. "Extracting Business Cycles using Semi-parametric Time-varying Spectra with Applications to US Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-105/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  42. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  43. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2010. "Noisy Information, Interest Rate Shocks and the Great Moderation," Economics working papers 2010-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  45. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  46. Tatom, John, 2011. "Inflation and asset prices," MPRA Paper 34606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1950, CESifo Group Munich.
  48. repec:dgr:uvatin:2006101 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. repec:dgr:uvatin:2007099 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  51. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.
  52. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  53. OKIMOTO, Tatsuyoshi & SHIMOTSU, Katsumi, 2010. "Decline in the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates : But Not Sufficient for Purchasing Power Parity," Discussion Papers 2010-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  54. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Papers 367, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  55. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
  56. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
  57. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
  58. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  59. repec:dgr:uvatin:20140119 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  61. Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Financial Market Integration and World Economic Stabilization toward Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 1138, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  62. Benhmad, François, 2013. "Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-151.
  63. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2010. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation for non-stationary periodic time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2641-2654, November.
  64. Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Expected Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of Bank Lending Rates," Working Papers 149, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  65. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
  66. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  67. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  68. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  69. Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2007. "Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2007-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  70. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo Group Munich.
  71. Gary Koop & Markus Jochmann & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian Forecasting using Stochastic Search Variable Selection in a VAR Subject to Breaks," Working Paper Series 19-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  72. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.
  73. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2002. "Inventory investment and output volatility," Working Papers 02-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  74. repec:dgr:uvatin:2006105 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.