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Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Do precious metal prices help in forecasting South African inflation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 63-72.
  3. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
  4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kozicki, Sharon, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 541-557, December.
  6. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  7. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
  8. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  9. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Giammetti, Raffaele & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2019. "Monetary policy, crisis and capital centralization in corporate ownership and control networks: A B-Var analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-66.
  10. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, May.
  11. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
  12. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
  13. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long-run," Studies in Economics 0409, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  14. Ghassem A. Homaifar & Jonathan Adongo & Kevin M. Zhao, 2013. "The long-run relationship between stock return dispersion and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 943-952, March.
  15. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 26(Q I), pages 32-44.
  16. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  17. Nagayasu, Jun, 2002. "On the term structure of interest rates and inflation in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 505-523.
  18. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
  19. Lopreite, Milena & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
  20. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
  21. Beckers, Benjamin, 2015. "The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112852, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  22. McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
  23. Jonathan H. Wright, 2009. "Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
  24. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/231, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
  26. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
  27. Nicolaas van der Wath, 2016. "Gauging financial conditions in South Africa," Working Papers 10/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  28. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
  29. Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  30. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability And The Ecb'S Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 268-326, April.
  31. Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Understanding Asset Prices: Determinants and Policy Implications," Working papers 168, Banque de France.
  32. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2006. "U.S. domestic money, inflation and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 183-197, March.
  33. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
  34. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  35. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-466 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCls Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Post-Print halshs-00258303, HAL.
  37. Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce, 2012. "Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 358-369.
  38. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  39. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017. "A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Papers halshs-01317974, HAL.
  40. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2016. "Learning Time-Varying Forecast Combinations," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16036r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Sep 2016.
  41. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  42. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  43. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  44. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  45. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
  46. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d'affaires américain," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  47. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Multivariate Threshold Models: TVARs and TVECMs," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(1), May.
  48. Silvia S.W. Lui, 2006. "An Empirical Study of Asian Stock Volatility Using Stochastic Volatility Factor Model: Factor Analysis and Forecasting," Working Papers 581, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  49. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192, Bank for International Settlements.
  50. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  52. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
  53. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2001. "Domestic money and US output and inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  54. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  55. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
  56. Serena Ng, 2014. "Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-34, February.
  57. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  58. Alexandra Kechrinioti & Dimitrios Karamanis, 2025. "The Greek-Turkish Rivalry: A Bayesian VAR Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 395-410, April.
  59. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  60. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  61. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
  62. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
  63. Kjetil Olsen & Jan Fredrik & Oistain Roisland, 2003. "Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 368-382, Bank for International Settlements.
  64. Thierry Grunspan, 2005. "The Fed and the Question of Financial Stability: An Empirical Investigation," Working papers 134, Banque de France.
  65. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
  66. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
  67. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
  69. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola & Volker Ziemann, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1003, OECD Publishing.
  70. Saif Hossain, 2013. "The Impulsive Stock Market of Bangladesh and the Great Recession," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 3(3), pages 126-139, March.
  71. Kazeem Isah & AbdulKader Mahomedy & Elias Udeaja & Ojo Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price-exchange rate-asymmetry perspectives," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
  72. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  73. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.
  74. Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "WHICH VARIABLES PREDICT INDONESIA’s INFLATION?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(1), pages 87-102, April.
  75. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
  76. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
  77. Manamani SAHOO, 2017. "Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 147-172, Autumn.
  78. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  79. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
  80. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. John A. Tatom, 2009. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?," NFI Working Papers 2009-WP-14, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  82. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Tarnaras, Panayiotis, 2015. "Quantity-of-money fluctuations and economic instability: empirical evidence for the USA (1958–2006)," MPRA Paper 90145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Aymen Makni, 2019. "A Macro-Model to Monetary Transmission Analysis in Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 13-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  84. Sanjay Singh & Neeraj Hatekar, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and evolution of term structure of interest rate: A dynamic latent factor approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 245-262, December.
  85. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
  86. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
  87. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
  88. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2002. "The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  89. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
  90. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
  91. Grégory Levieuge, 2015. "the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey s indicators (in French)," Working papers 567, Banque de France.
  92. Stephen P Millard & Simon J Wells, 2003. "The role of asset prices in transmitting monetary and other shocks," Bank of England working papers 188, Bank of England.
  93. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2005. "US domestic currency in forecast error variance decompositions of inflation and output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 265-271, February.
  94. Chi-Wei SU & Zong-Liang YAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG, 2016. "The relationship between output and asset prices: A time – and frequency – varying approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 57-76, Spring.
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