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Citations for "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices"

by James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

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  1. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers 09-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  2. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2015. "Inflation as a Global Phenomenon—Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1520, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchrinization of the Euro Area with the New and Negotiating Member Countries," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 7-2007, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  5. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
  6. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2010. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 34104, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
  7. Torben Klarl, 2016. "The nexus between housing and GDP re-visited: A wavelet coherence view on housing and GDP for the U.S," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 704-720.
  8. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
  9. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  10. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  12. Turgut Kisinbay & Eric Parrado & Rodolfo Maino & Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/122, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2011. "The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  14. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
  15. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 149, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  16. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis G. & Kyriazis, Dimitrios, 2015. "Does stock market liquidity explain real economic activity? New evidence from two large European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 42-64.
  17. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  18. César Carrera & Nelson Ramírez-Rondán, 2014. "Inflation, Information Rigidity, and the Sticky Information Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2014-1, Peruvian Economic Association.
  19. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2013. "Forecasting US growth during the Great Recession: Is the financial volatility the missing ingredient?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-19, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  20. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  21. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  23. Bańbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346.
  24. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
  25. Duarte, Fernando M. & Rosa, Carlo, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Staff Reports 714, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 03/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  27. Kerry B. Hudson & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Understanding the Deviations of the Taylor Rule: A New Methodology with an Application to Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2014-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  28. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles," CAMA Working Papers 2010-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  29. Gantungalag Altansukha & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2016. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation? ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 224, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  30. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
  31. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecasting Using Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to U.K. Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 33-41, January.
  32. Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  33. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2004. "A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 219, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  34. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  35. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
  36. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  37. Stéphane Sorbe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 16-24, 06.
  38. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  39. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  40. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2002. "The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  41. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  42. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
  43. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  46. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Paper 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  48. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  49. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  50. Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
  51. Wei, Xiaoqiao & Yang, Yuhong, 2012. "Robust forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 224-236.
  52. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
  53. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
  54. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, 04.
  55. Bohl, Martin & Mayes, David G. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  56. Harrison Hong & Motohiro Yogo, 2011. "What Does Futures Market Interest Tell Us about the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices?," NBER Working Papers 16712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  58. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  59. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  60. Grothe, Magdalena & Meyler, Aidan, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," MPRA Paper 66982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.
  62. Teresa C. Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," NBER Working Papers 19134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
  64. Bataa, Erdenebat, 2012. "The Composite Leading Indicator of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 72415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2003. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 03-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  66. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," MPRA Paper 58360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  68. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "International Stock Return Predictability: Is the Role of U.S. Time-Varying?," Working Papers 15-07, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  69. Ray C. Fair, 2014. "The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2015.
  70. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  71. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  72. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112.
  73. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
  74. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
  75. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2016. "Learning Time-Varying Forecast Combinations," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16036r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Sep 2016.
  76. William T. Gavin & David M. Kemme, 2007. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Working Papers 2004-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  77. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
  78. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a Panel of OECD Countries? A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201637, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  79. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  80. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  81. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
  82. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  83. Mahmut Günay, 2015. "Forecasting Turkish Industrial Production Growth With Static Factor Models," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 64-78, September.
  84. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, 11.
  85. repec:hhs:bofrdp:2009_031 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2006. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  88. repec:bth:wpaper:2004-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
  90. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  91. Marie Diron & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 33-45.
  92. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
  93. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel & Martin Lettau, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 117-133.
  94. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
  95. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
  96. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
  97. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "A cost-of-living dynamic price index, with an application to indexing retirement accounts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5394, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  98. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  99. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns," Working Papers 416, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  100. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
  101. Wang, Zijun, 2009. "Stock returns and the short-run predictability of health expenditure: Some empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 587-601, July.
  102. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  103. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
  104. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
  105. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
  106. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
  107. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  108. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model," Studies in Economics 0802, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  109. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2015. "Bank liquidity creation and asset market liquidity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 139-153.
  110. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation: A factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, September.
  111. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
  112. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
  113. Ferrara, Laurent & Marsilli, Clément & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 44-50.
  114. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  115. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  116. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  117. Aksoy, Yunus & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Interest rates and output in the long-run," Working Paper Series 0434, European Central Bank.
  118. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2005_9, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2005.
  119. Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
  120. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2005. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0506, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  121. Croushore, Dean & Marsten, Katherine, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  122. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, EconWPA.
  123. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  124. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  125. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
  126. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  127. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  128. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1324, CIRPEE.
  129. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Forecasting growth and inflation in an enlarged euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 405-425.
  130. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," Working Paper 2015/09, Norges Bank.
  131. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & John Smithin, 2006. "Real wages, productivity and economic growth in the G7, 1960-2002," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 223-233.
  132. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  133. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-301, April.
  134. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2013. "Trend inflation in advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  135. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts," Working Papers 0801, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  136. Aksoy, Yunus & Melina, Giovanni, 2012. "An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 64-68.
  137. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
  138. mhamdi, ghrissi, 2013. "stability of money demand function in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 63478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  139. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, . "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  140. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
  141. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  142. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
  143. Nektarios Aslanidis & Luke Hartigan, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Discussion Papers 2016-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  144. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Valuation Ratios and Stock Return Predictability in South Africa: Is It There?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 70-82, January.
  145. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
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  293. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  294. Igor Makarov & D. Papanikolaou, 2008. "Sources of systematic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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