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Citations for "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices"

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  1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  2. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "What Type Of Social Capital Is Engaged By The French Dairy Stockbreeders? A Characterization Through Their Professional Identities," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, JUNE.
  3. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
  4. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 869-889, 08.
  5. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Ferando Perez de Gracia, 2014. "Persistence, Mean Reversion and Non-Linearities in US Housing Prices Over 1830-2013," Working Papers 201450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori & Wang Chen, 2014. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China," Discussion Papers 1428, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  7. Naresh Bansal & Jack Strauss & Alireza Nasseh, 2015. "Can we consistently forecast a firm’s earnings? Using combination forecast methods to predict the EPS of Dow firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, January.
  8. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  10. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2006. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201009, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  12. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  13. Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012. "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 811-813.
  14. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
  15. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  16. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  17. Mark Gertler, 2003. "Whither monetary and financial stability? : the implications of evolving policy regimes : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 213-223.
  18. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  19. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization of the Euro Area with the New and Negotiating Member Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 91, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  20. Philippe Mueller & Mikhail Chernov, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," 2008 Meeting Papers 346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Zeng, Zheng, 2013. "New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 125-139.
  22. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  23. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  24. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  25. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting using Bayesian and Information Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to UK Inflation," Working Papers 566, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  26. Zaher, Fadi, 2007. "Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 679-693.
  27. Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 201510, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  28. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
  30. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 13 BAWP, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  31. Kjetil Olsen & Jan Fredrik & Oistain Roisland, 2003. "Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 368-382 Bank for International Settlements.
  32. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
  33. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
  34. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  35. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2005. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0506, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  36. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model," Studies in Economics 0802, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  37. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  38. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  39. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  40. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  41. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 2006. "Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 147-173, April.
  42. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
  43. Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  44. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2005. "US domestic currency in forecast error variance decompositions of inflation and output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 265-271, February.
  45. Andrade, P. & Fourel, V. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, I., 2013. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," Working papers 437, Banque de France.
  46. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.
  47. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  48. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
  49. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  50. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  51. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  52. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Roll, Richard & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 04-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  53. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  54. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642.
  55. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, 04.
  56. Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
  57. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
  58. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. David Bivin, 2005. "Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1215-1231.
  60. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," AQR Working Papers 201312, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.
  61. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
  62. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Pakko, Michael R., 2009. "Inflation Risk And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 58-75, May.
  64. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2002. "The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  65. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
  66. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," MPRA Paper 56737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  68. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  69. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-27, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  70. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2013. "Forecasting US growth during the Great Recession: Is the financial volatility the missing ingredient?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-19, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  71. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 10-2014, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  72. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.
  73. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2009. "Using subspace algorithm cointegration analysis: Simulation performance and application to the term structure," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1954-1973, April.
  74. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
  75. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  76. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2014. "Forecasting US Real House Price Returns over 1831-2013: Evidence from Copula Models," Working Papers 2014-585, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  77. Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
  78. Yunus Aksoy & Giovanni Melina, 2011. "An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1105, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  79. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  80. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  81. Teresa C. Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," Working Papers 13-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  82. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  83. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  84. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Chen Yu-Chin & Rogoff Kenneth, 2012. "Are The Commodity Currencies An Exception To The Rule?," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1250004-1-1.
  86. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  88. Yu-chin Chen & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Eric Zivot, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation using Commodity Price Aggregates," Working Papers UWEC-2011-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  89. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  90. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
  91. Anil Kashyap & Francois Gourio, 2007. "Investment Spikes: New Facts and a General Equilibrium Exploration," 2007 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  92. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  93. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  94. Ryan Banerjee & Nicoletta Batini, 2003. "UK Consumers’ Habits," Discussion Papers 13, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  95. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
  96. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  97. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  98. Aksoy, Yunus & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Interest rates and output in the long-run," Working Paper Series 0434, European Central Bank.
  99. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  100. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  101. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  102. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
  103. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  104. Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2003. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 571, Boston College Department of Economics.
  105. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2001. "Domestic money and US output and inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  106. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  107. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2013. "Trend inflation in advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  108. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  109. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
  110. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192 Bank for International Settlements.
  111. Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 0867, European Central Bank.
  112. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  113. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  114. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  115. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
  116. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  117. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 318-342, July.
  118. Jean-Marie Dufour & David Tessier, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices," Working Papers 06-39, Bank of Canada.
  119. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  120. Stéphane Sorbe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 16-24, 06.
  121. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  122. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  123. Pierre L. Siklos, 2007. "The FedÕs Reaction to the Stock Market During the Great Depression: Fact or Artefact?," Working Paper Series 33-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  124. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  125. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  126. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  127. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  128. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. ""Ripple Effects” and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working Papers 0902, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  129. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA.
  130. Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
  131. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
  132. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2006. "The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping," European Economy - Economic Papers 249, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  133. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  134. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
  135. Turgut Kisinbay & Eric Parrado & Rodolfo Maino & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/122, International Monetary Fund.
  136. Elena Andreou & Marianne Sensier & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth?," Working Paper Series 37-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  137. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009. "Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
  138. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  139. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  140. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation forecasts," Working Paper Series 0151, European Central Bank.
  141. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
  142. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "A cost-of-living dynamic price index, with an application to indexing retirement accounts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5394, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  143. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  144. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  145. Ray C. Fair, 2014. "The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2015.
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