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Citations for "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts"

by Wallis, Kenneth F.

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  1. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  2. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  3. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
  5. Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, September.
  6. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "Too Good to be True? The (In)credibility of the UK Inflation Fan Charts," Occasional Papers 11, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
  7. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
  8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 201226, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
  10. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 541-557.
  11. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  12. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  13. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Decompositions of Pearson's chi-squared test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 189-193, November.
  14. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
  15. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CREATES Research Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  16. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, February.
  17. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  18. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  19. Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Jaouad MADKOUR, 2011. "Testing Interval Forecasts: A New GMM-based Test," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1549, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  20. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Probability Forecasting for Inflation Warnings from the Federal Reserve," EMF Research Papers 07, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
  21. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
  22. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
  23. Granger, Clive W.J. & Terasvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2006. "Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 43-57, May.
  24. Kostas Mouratidis & Dimitris Kenourgios & Aris Samitas, 2010. "Evaluating currency crisis:A multivariate Markov switching approach," Working Papers 2010018, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
  25. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  26. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173.
  27. Li, Yushu & Andersson, Jonas, 2014. "A Likelihood Ratio and Markov Chain Based Method to Evaluate Density Forecasting," Discussion Papers 2014/12, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  28. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  29. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
  30. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011. "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-87, January.
  31. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2012. "A simple approach to standardized-residuals-based higher-moment tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 427-453.
  32. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  33. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2004. "The performance of SETAR models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 305-320.
  34. McDonald, Christopher & Thamotheram, Craig & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2015. "Assessing the Economic Value of Probabilistic Forecasts in the Presence of an Inflation Target," EMF Research Papers 09, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
  35. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  37. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  38. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
  39. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  40. Mark Harris & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2011. "A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 413-442, March.
  41. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, EconWPA.
  42. Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.
  43. Freeland, R. K. & McCabe, B. P. M., 2004. "Forecasting discrete valued low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 427-434.
  44. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  45. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  46. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
  47. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "The Swedish Inflation Fan Charts: An Evaluation of the Riksbank?s Inflation Density Forecasts," Occasional Papers 10, Industrial Economics Division, revised 11 Jan 2004.
  48. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  49. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  50. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, February.
  51. Caraiani, Petre, 2016. "The role of money in DSGE models: a forecasting perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 315-330.
  52. Matei Demetrescu, 2007. "Optimal forecast intervals under asymmetric loss," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 227-238.
  53. Klinger, Sabine & Heilemann, Ullrich, 2005. "Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen," Technical Reports 2005,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  54. Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek & Thomson, Mary, 2010. "Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 195-201, August.
  55. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "An Essay on the interactions between the Bank of England's forecasts, the MPC's policy adjustments, and the eventual outcome," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  56. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
  57. Heilemann Ullrich, 2004. "Besser geht’s nicht – Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen / As Good as it Gets – Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(1-2), pages 51-64, February.
  58. Elena‐Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Jaouad Madkour, 2013. "Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 97-110, 03.
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