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Citations for "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets"

by Manski, Charles F.

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  1. Ray Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2406, Yale School of Management.
  2. Knight, Brian, 2006. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(4-5), pages 751-773, May.
  3. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  5. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," AMSE Working Papers 1414, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised May 2014.
  6. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1579, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2007.
  7. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578, May.
  9. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  10. Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, EconWPA.
  11. Katarina Kalovcova & Andreas Ortmann, 2009. "Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp397, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  12. Amalia Di Girolamo & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & J. Todd Swarthout, 2013. "Characterizing Financial and Statistical Literacy," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  13. Agrawal, Shipra & Megiddo, Nimrod & Armbruster, Benjamin, 2010. "Equilibrium in prediction markets with buyers and sellers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 46-49, October.
  14. Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz & Andre Trindade, 2014. "Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections," Economics Working Papers we1416, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  15. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  16. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
  17. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," IZA Discussion Papers 4884, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Ray Fair & Cowles Discussion & Yale Working, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2643, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  19. Boyle, Glenn & Videbeck, Steen, 2005. "A Primer on Information Markets," Working Paper Series 3853, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  20. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Matthieu Segol, 2012. "Aggregation of information and beliefs on prediction markets with non-bayesian traders," Post-Print dumas-00809694, HAL.
  22. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000427, UCLA Department of Economics.
  23. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel van der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers 1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  24. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  25. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, 05.
  26. Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets in the Laboratory," Working Papers 13-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  27. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  28. Amos Storkey, 2011. "Machine Learning Markets," Papers 1106.4509, arXiv.org.
  29. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  30. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  31. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  32. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
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