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Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models
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- Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
- Lu, Ye & Suthaharan, Neyavan, 2023. "Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Loutfi, Ahmad Amine & Sun, Mengtao & Loutfi, Ijlal & Solibakke, Per Bjarte, 2022. "Empirical study of day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: Insights into a novel loss function for training neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
- Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2017. "Estimation of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: application to modeling of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 and fuel-switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 169-197, August.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
- F. Cordoni, 2020. "A comparison of modern deep neural network architectures for energy spot price forecasting," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 189-210, December.
- Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012.
"Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Luigi Grossi, 2011. "Forecasting Italian Electricity Zonal Prices with Exogenous Variables," Working Papers 01/2011, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Saber Talari & Miadreza Shafie-khah & Gerardo J. Osório & Fei Wang & Alireza Heidari & João P. S. Catalão, 2017. "Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-13, November.
- Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
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- Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
- Cui, Can & Wu, Teresa & Hu, Mengqi & Weir, Jeffery D. & Li, Xiwang, 2016. "Short-term building energy model recommendation system: A meta-learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 251-263.
- Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2008. "Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws081406, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
- Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015.
"Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
- Eran Raviv & Kees E. Bouwman & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-068/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Santiago Gall n & Jorge Barrientos, 2021. "Forecasting the Colombian Electricity Spot Price under a Functional Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 67-74.
- Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
- Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
- Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
- Park, S.C. & Jin, Y.G. & Song, H.Y. & Yoon, Y.T., 2015. "Designing a critical peak pricing scheme for the profit maximization objective considering price responsiveness of customers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 521-531.
- Jaroslava Hlouskova & Stephan Kossmeier & Michael Obersteiner & Alexander Schnabl, 2005.
"Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market,"
Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
- Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael & Schnabl, Alexander, 2005. "Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
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- Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2005.
"Energy market reforms in Turkey: An economic analysis,"
MPRA Paper
26929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Regulatory Reform in Turkish Energy Industry: An analysis," MPRA Paper 19100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jun Maekawa & Bui Hien Hai & Sarana Shinkuma & Koji Shimada, 2018. "The Effect of Renewable Energy Generation on the Electric Power Spot Price of the Japan Electric Power Exchange," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, August.
- Lehna, Malte & Scheller, Fabian & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, revised 15 Apr 2013.
- Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of Developments in the Day Ahead Electricity Markets in India," MPRA Paper 72969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
- Hickey, Emily & Loomis, David G. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2012. "Forecasting hourly electricity prices using ARMAX–GARCH models: An application to MISO hubs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 307-315.
- Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
- Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
- Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2025. "A data-driven merit order: Learning a fundamental electricity price model," Papers 2501.02963, arXiv.org.
- Andrea Saayman & Ilsé Botha, 2017. "Non-linear models for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 594-613, May.
- Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009.
"It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices,"
The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
- Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1), pages 25-48, January.
- T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices," NCER Working Paper Series 25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Bento, P.M.R. & Pombo, J.A.N. & Calado, M.R.A. & Mariano, S.J.P.S., 2018. "A bat optimized neural network and wavelet transform approach for short-term price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 88-97.
- Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2021. "Electricity Price Fundamentals in Hydrothermal Power Generation Markets Using Machine Learning and Quantile Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 66-77.
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2016.
"Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 361-378, January.
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Méritet, 2014. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Post-Print hal-01502835, HAL.
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2016. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Post-Print hal-01276807, HAL.
- Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2014. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Working Papers 2014-588, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016.
"Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
- Yunus Emre Ergemen & Niels Haldrup & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2015. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," CREATES Research Papers 2015-58, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010.
"A paper on the unsettled question of Turkish electricity market: Balancing and settlement system (Part I),"
Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 251-258, January.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "A paper on the unsettled question of Turkish electricity market: Balancing and settlement system (Part I)," MPRA Paper 19090, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023.
"Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
- Anna Gloria Billé & Angelica Gianfreda & Filippo Del Grosso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices with Expert, Linear and Non-Linear Models," Working Paper series 21-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Xavier Serrano-Guerrero & Guillermo Escrivá-Escrivá & Santiago Luna-Romero & Jean-Michel Clairand, 2020. "A Time-Series Treatment Method to Obtain Electrical Consumption Patterns for Anomalies Detection Improvement in Electrical Consumption Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
- Javed, Fahad & Arshad, Naveed & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana & Dahlquist, Erik, 2012. "Forecasting for demand response in smart grids: An analysis on use of anthropologic and structural data and short term multiple loads forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 150-160.
- Jan Smolen & Branislav Dudic, 2017. "The Role of Residual Demand in Electricity Price Analysis and Forecasting: Case of Czech Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 152-158.
- Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018.
"Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting,"
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
- Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
- André Luis da Silva Leite & Marcus Vinicius Andrade de Lima, 2023. "A GARCH Model to Understand the Volatility of the Electricity Spot Price in Brazil," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 332-338, September.
- Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
- Krzemień, Alicja & Riesgo Fernández, Pedro & Suárez Sánchez, Ana & Diego Álvarez, Isidro, 2016. "Beyond the pan-european standard for reporting of exploration results, mineral resources and reserves," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-91.
- Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
- Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
- Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2019. "Application of ARIMA Modelling for the Forecasting of Solar, Wind, Spot and Options Electricity Prices: The Australian National Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 263-272.
- Weron, Rafał, 2014.
"Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
- Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Mukherjee, Paramita & Coondoo, Dipankor & Lahiri, Poulomi, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Prices in Indian Spot Electricity Market," MPRA Paper 103161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
- repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-035 is not listed on IDEAS
- Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
- Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
- Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018.
"Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
- Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Papers 1805.06649, arXiv.org.
- S. Vijayalakshmi & G. P. Girish, 2015. "Artificial Neural Networks for Spot Electricity Price Forecasting: A Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1092-1097.
- Jens Baetens & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Greet Van Eetvelde & Lieven Vandevelde, 2020. "A Two-Stage Stochastic Optimisation Methodology for the Operation of a Chlor-Alkali Electrolyser under Variable DAM and FCR Market Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
- Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
- Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
- Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
- Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3226-3234, October.
- Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
- Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafał Weron, 2015.
"Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships,"
Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 805-819, September.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011.
"Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?,"
Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
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- Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia & Musti, Silvana, 2016. "Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-102.
- Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2013.
"Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-90.
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- Diego Aineto & Javier Iranzo-Sánchez & Lenin G. Lemus-Zúñiga & Eva Onaindia & Javier F. Urchueguía, 2019. "On the Influence of Renewable Energy Sources in Electricity Price Forecasting in the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
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"Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models,"
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"Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices,"
Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
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- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2006. "Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
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- Li, Ranran, 2023. "Forecasting energy spot prices: A multiscale clustering recognition approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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