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An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Whei-Min
  • Gow, Hong-Jey
  • Tsai, Ming-Tang

Abstract

This paper proposed a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Radial Basis Function Network (ERBFN) has been proposed for the solving process. The Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load, transmission flow and temperature of the PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday and weekend. With the OED applied to learning rates in the ERBFN, the forecasting error can be reduced during the training process to improve both accuracy and reliability. This would mean that even the "spikes" could be tracked closely. The Back-propagation Neural Network (BPN), Probability Neural Network (PNN), other algorithms, and the proposed ERBFN were all developed and compared to check the performance. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed ERBFN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 3226-3234.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:10:p:3226-3234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Inglesi, Roula, 2010. "Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 197-204, January.
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    6. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00307606 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    2. Yang, Zhang & Ce, Li & Lian, Li, 2017. "Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 291-305.
    3. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    4. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Feng & Song, Yiliao, 2017. "A hybrid forecasting model based on date-framework strategy and improved feature selection technology for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 694-709.
    5. Khosravi, Abbas & Nahavandi, Saeid & Creighton, Doug, 2013. "Quantifying uncertainties of neural network-based electricity price forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 120-129.
    6. repec:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p2:p:2870-2878 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Javed, Fahad & Arshad, Naveed & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana & Dahlquist, Erik, 2012. "Forecasting for demand response in smart grids: An analysis on use of anthropologic and structural data and short term multiple loads forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 150-160.
    8. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Kequan & Lu, Haiyan, 2016. "Research and application of a hybrid model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 213-233.
    9. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    10. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, 2015. "Explanatory Information Analysis for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting in the Iberian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, pages 1-23.
    11. Che, JinXing & Wang, JianZhou, 2014. "Short-term load forecasting using a kernel-based support vector regression combination model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 602-609.
    12. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    13. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    14. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    15. Jesus Lago & Fjo De Ridder & Peter Vrancx & Bart De Schutter, 2017. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: the importance of considering market integration," Papers 1708.07061, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.

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