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Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Maule, Becky & Pugh, Alice, 2012. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to the economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 110-121.
  2. Nyman, Rickard & Kapadia, Sujit & Tuckett, David, 2021. "News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty and the macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1093-1107, February.
  4. Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday & Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "A Positive Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on the Economy: Is the Chase Over ?," Working Papers hal-04159792, HAL.
  5. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viáfara & Carlos Hernán Gonzáles-Campo, 2022. "Efecto de la incertidumbre en las organizaciones del mercado accionario: una herramienta para la toma de decisiones y la inteligencia organizacional," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(162), pages 57-68, March.
  6. Pedro Costa Ferreira & Raíra Marotta B. Vieira & Felipi Bruno Silva & Ingrid C. L. Oliveira, 2019. "Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 25-40, April.
  7. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
  8. Mecikovsky, Ariel Matias & Meier, Matthias, 2014. "Do plants freeze upon uncertainty shocks?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100541, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  10. Bornali Bhandari, 2021. "Overview," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 7-21, February.
  11. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
  12. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 159-181, Springer.
  13. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Neamțu, Ioana & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2021. "Risk-taking and uncertainty: do contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds increase the risk appetite of banks?," Bank of England working papers 938, Bank of England.
  14. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
  15. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  16. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
  17. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Guérin, Pierre, 2013. "Characterizing very high uncertainty episodes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 239-243.
  18. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
  19. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
  20. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  21. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "Measuring economic uncertainty using news-media textual data," MPRA Paper 64874, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2015.
  22. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
  23. Farrant, Katie & Inkinen, Mika & Rutkowska, Magda & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2013. "What can company data tell us about financing and investment decisions?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 361-370.
  24. Bouri, Elie & Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2016. "Crude oil prices and sectoral stock returns in Jordan around the Arab uprisings of 2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 205-214.
  25. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/169, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Zoltan Bakonyi & Balazs Murakozy, 2016. "Centralization of strategic decisions during the Great Recession: An empirical analysis of European manufacturing firms," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1617, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  27. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
  28. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
  29. Tamai, Toshiki, 2016. "Public investment, the rate of return, and optimal fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-17.
  30. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
  31. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon-Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2020. "The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934," CESifo Working Paper Series 8336, CESifo.
  32. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
  33. Valeriu Nalban, 2016. "Sentiment-Driven Asymmetries in Romanian Monetary Policy Transmission," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 251-270, May.
  34. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 555-580, December.
  35. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
  36. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator," Post-Print hal-01757042, HAL.
  37. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "“Digital Gold” and geopolitics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  38. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and its Discontents: The Case of Poland," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(supplemen), pages 107-122, December.
  39. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Qatar-Gulf Crisis and Risk Management in Oil and Gas Markets," Working Papers hal-02101633, HAL.
  40. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.
  41. Hackworth, Christopher & Radia, Amar & Roberts, Nyssa, 2013. "Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 336-350.
  42. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
  43. Andrzej Rzonca & Piotr Cizkowicz, 2014. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy: what do central banks not include in their models? / Skutki niekonwencjonalnej polityki pieniê¿nej: czego banki centralne nie uwzglêdniaj¹w swoich modela," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 131, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  44. Lacerda, Teresa C., 2019. "Crisis leadership in economic recession: A three-barrier approach to offset external constraints," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 185-197.
  45. Henry W. Chappell & William Greene & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2022. "Uncertainty and the Bank of England's MPC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 825-858, June.
  46. Richard Disney & Helen Miller & Thomas Pope, 2018. "Firm-level investment spikes and aggregate investment over the Great Recession," IFS Working Papers W18/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  47. Barnett, Alina & Batten, Sandra & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 114-128.
  48. Lothian, James R., 2014. "Monetary policy and the twin crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 197-210.
  49. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201706 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  51. Stratford, Kate, 2013. "Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 233-242.
  52. Liu, Li & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2020. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The role of technical variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-65.
  53. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Neamtu, Ioana & Fatou, Mahmoud, 2022. "Risk-Taking, Competition and Uncertainty: Do Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds Increase the Risk Appetite of Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
  55. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
  56. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
  57. López-Pérez, Víctor, 2016. "Does uncertainty affect non-response to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-47.
  58. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
  59. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  60. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2019. "The Shape of Eurozone’s Uncertainty: Its Impact and Predictive Value on GDP," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 19-01, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  61. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
  62. Marcelo A. T. Aragão & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2023. "A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Working Papers Series 585, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  63. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
  64. Anderson, Gareth & Maule, Becky, 2014. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 148-162.
  65. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon‐Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2023. "The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 3-30, February.
  66. José Mauricio Gil León & Daniel Eduardo Silva-Pinzón, 2019. "Índice de incertidumbre de política económica (EPU) para Colombia, 2000-2017," Ensayos de Economía 18198, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
  67. Gieseck Arne & Largent Yannis, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Activity in the Euro Area," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 25-52, May.
  68. Bonga, Wellington Garikai, 2019. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 94759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Tamai, Toshiki, 2014. "Public capital, deficit financing, and economic growth in a stochastic economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 14-26.
  70. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2014. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-62, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  71. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2015. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-68, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  72. Wang, Xunxiao & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Volatility spillovers between crude oil and Chinese sectoral equity markets: Evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 995-1009.
  73. Lacerda, Teresa C., 2018. "The Interplay Between Leadership and Adverse Context: The Paradox Explained," 6th International OFEL Conference on Governance, Management and Entrepreneurship. New Business Models and Institutional Entrepreneurs: Leading Disruptive Change (Dubrovnik, 2018), in: 6th International OFEL Conference on Governance, Management and Entrepreneurship. New Business Models and Institutional Entrepreneurs: Leading Disrupt, pages 149-165, Governance Research and Development Centre (CIRU), Zagreb.
  74. Kim Nguyen & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "Start Spreading the News: News Sentiment and Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  75. López-Pérez, Víctor, 2016. "Does uncertainty affect non-response to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters?," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  76. Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.
  77. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  78. Douglas de Medeiros Franco, 2022. "Expectations, Economic Uncertainty, and Sentiment," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 26(5), pages 210029-2100.
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