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Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Laura Battaglia & Timothy Christensen & Stephen Hansen & Szymon Sacher, 2024. "Inference for Regression with Variables Generated by AI or Machine Learning," Papers 2402.15585, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
  2. Vito Cormun & Kim Ristolainen, 2024. "Exchange Rate Narratives," Discussion Papers 167, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  3. Lino Wehrheim, 2019. "Economic history goes digital: topic modeling the Journal of Economic History," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(1), pages 83-125, January.
  4. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
  5. Callan Windsor, 2021. "The Intellectual Ideas Inside Central Banks: What'S Changed (Or Not) Since The Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 539-565, April.
  6. Andr Kall k Anundsen & Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal & Erling R ed Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19," Working Papers No 07/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  7. Marcus Buckmann & Ed Hill, 2025. "Improving text classification: logistic regression makes small LLMs strong and explainable ‘tens-of-shot’ classifiers," Bank of England working papers 1127, Bank of England.
  8. Maximilian Maurice Gail & Phil-Adrian Klotz, 2025. "E-book Pricing Under the Agency Model: Lessons from the UK," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-39, December.
  9. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
  10. Boubaker, Sabri & Liu, Zhenya & Zhai, Ling, 2021. "Big data, news diversity and financial market crash," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  11. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
  12. Laurent Ferrara & Nicolas de Roux, 2025. "Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach," Working Papers hal-05072535, HAL.
  13. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 838-868, July.
  14. Robert Lehmann & Sascha Möhrle, 2024. "Forecasting regional industrial production with novel high‐frequency electricity consumption data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1918-1935, September.
  15. Vegard H ghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2018. "Business cycle narratives," Working Papers No 6/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  16. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
  17. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Geopolitical risk perceptions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  18. Shapiro, Adam Hale & Sudhof, Moritz & Wilson, Daniel J., 2022. "Measuring news sentiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 221-243.
  19. Corinna Ghirelli & Juan Peñalosa & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Some implications of new data sources for economic analysis and official statistics," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN.
  20. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2024. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1220-1244, November.
  21. Ksenia Yakovleva, 2018. "Text Mining-based Economic Activity Estimation," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 26-41, December.
  22. Szymon Sacher & Laura Battaglia & Stephen Hansen, 2021. "Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Regression with High-Dimensional Categorical Data," Papers 2107.08112, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  23. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
  24. Nimark, Kristoffer P. & Pitschner, Stefan, 2019. "News media and delegated information choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 160-196.
  25. Julian Ashwin & Eleni Kalamara & Lorena Saiz, 2024. "Nowcasting Euro area GDP with news sentiment: A tale of two crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 887-905, August.
  26. Wang, Jiqian & Chen, Chuang & Dai, Xingyu, 2025. "News topic attention and crude oil price predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(PA).
  27. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
  28. Allahdadi, Mohammad R. & Fretheim, Torun & Vindedal, Kjetil, 2024. "Value of climate change news: A textual analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  29. Ziyan Zhao & Qingfeng Liu, 2024. "Time-Varying Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 2401, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  30. Cho, Dooyeon & Jung, Jaehun, 2026. "Mind the tone: Responses of inflation expectations to central bankers’ speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  31. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
  32. Tingguo Zheng & Xinyue Fan & Wei Jin & Kuangnan Fang, 2024. "Forecasting CPI with multisource data: The value of media and internet information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 702-753, April.
  33. Kim Nguyen & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "Start Spreading the News: News Sentiment and Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  34. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
  35. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Røed Larsen, Erling & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2023. "Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
  36. Adämmer, Philipp & Prüser, Jan & Schüssler, Rainer A., 2025. "Forecasting macroeconomic tail risk in real time: Do textual data add value?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 307-320.
  37. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia, 2021. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 507-520.
  38. Esther Ruiz & Pilar Poncela, 2022. "Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: Kalman Filter Versus Principal Components," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 121-231, November.
  39. Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2023. "Mediendaten für die Konjunkturanalyse," Kiel Insight 2023.11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  40. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  41. Daniel Borup & Jorge Wolfgang Hansen & Benjamin Dybro Liengaard & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2023. "Quantifying investor narratives and their role during COVID‐19," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 512-532, June.
  42. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
  43. Shrub, Yuliya & Rieger, Jonas & Müller, Henrik & Jentsch, Carsten, 2022. "Text data rule - don't they? A study on the (additional) information of Handelsblatt data for nowcasting German GDP in comparison to established economic indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 964, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  44. Marozzi, Armando, 2021. "The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB," Working Paper Series 2609, European Central Bank.
  45. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
  46. Dorine Boumans & Henrik Müller & Stefan Sauer, 2022. "How Media Content Influences Economic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Expert Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 380, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  47. Aguilar, Pablo & Ghirelli, Corinna & Pacce, Matías & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  48. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  49. Mirjana Čižmešija & Zrinka Lukač & Marina Matošec, 2025. "Gaining confidence in the revised consumer confidence indicator: nonlinear optimization approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 517-547, July.
  50. Ruman, Asif M., 2023. "A Comparative Textual Study of FOMC Transcripts Through Inflation Peaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  51. Bouteska, Ahmed & Cardillo, Giovanni & Harasheh, Murad, 2023. "Is it all about noise? Investor sentiment and risk nexus: evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  52. Pan, Zhiyuan & Fu, Ziqian & Wang, Yudong & Dong, Qingma, 2024. "Exploiting the sentiments: A simple approach for improving cross hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  53. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2023: Finanzpolitik in Turbulenzen - Gegenwind für die Erholung [German Economy in Winter 2023: Public budget under stress - Recovery faces headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 110, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  54. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
  55. Meng Qi & Bei Zhang & Junjie Li & Bangfan Liu, 2023. "The Three-Dimensional Analytical and Governance Logic of China’s Digital Divide Bridging Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-24, April.
  56. Anton Oleinik, 2022. "Relevance in Web search: between content, authority and popularity," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 173-194, February.
  57. Seo, Beomseok, 2025. "Econometric forecasting using ubiquitous news text: Text-enhanced factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1055-1072.
  58. Chen, Chung-Chi & Huang, Yu-Lieh & Yang, Fang, 2024. "Semantics matter: An empirical study on economic policy uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1286-1302.
  59. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Murach, Michael, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects from media coverage of the China–U.S. trade war on selected EU countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  60. Jose Ramon Saura & Domingo Ribeiro-Soriano & Daniel Palacios-Marqués, 2024. "Data-driven strategies in operation management: mining user-generated content in Twitter," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 333(2), pages 849-869, February.
  61. Diego Fresoli & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Dealing with idiosyncratic cross-correlation when constructing confidence regions for PC factors," Papers 2407.06883, arXiv.org.
  62. Axel Groß-Klußmann, 2024. "Learning deep news sentiment representations for macro-finance," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 341-377, September.
  63. Lino Wehrheim, 2017. "Economic History Goes Digital: Topic Modeling the Journal of Economic History," Working Papers 177, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
  64. Marco Fruzzetti & Tiziano Ropele, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian industrial production: the predictive role of lubricant oils," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 866, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  65. Laura Battaglia & Timothy M. Christensen & Stephen Hansen & Szymon Sacher, 2024. "Inference for regression with variables generated from unstructured data," CeMMAP working papers 10/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  66. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  67. Keiichi Goshima & Hiroshi Ishijima & Mototsugu Shintani & Hiroki Yamamoto, 2019. "Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities," CARF F-Series CARF-F-458, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  68. Dorinth van Dijk & Jasper de Winter, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics: Evidence from the financial press," Working Papers 766, DNB.
  69. Hao XIAO & Xiaofen LI & Junyi YANG & Xinjian YE, 2025. "Can AI-Driven National ESG in Big Data Help Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 84-103, July.
  70. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  71. Diana Petrova & Pavel Trunin, 2020. "Revealing the mood of economic agents based on search queries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 71-87.
  72. Bernd Prostmaier & Jan V'avra & Bettina Grun & Paul Hofmarcher, 2025. "Seeded Poisson Factorization: leveraging domain knowledge to fit topic models," Papers 2503.02741, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
  73. Tino Berger & Simon Wintter, 2025. "Economic Forecasting With German Newspaper Articles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 497-512, March.
  74. Mikhaylov, Dmitry, 2023. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Use of News Data," Working Papers w20220250, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  75. Luca Alfieri & Mustafa Hakan Eratalay & Darya Lapitskaya & Rajesh Sharma, 2022. "The Effects Of The Ecb Communications On Financial Markets Before And During Covid-19 Pandemic," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 140, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  76. Babolmorad, N. & Massoud, N., 2025. "Supervising Sentiment Models: Market Signals or Human Expertise?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2577, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  77. Algaba, Andres & Borms, Samuel & Boudt, Kris & Verbeken, Brecht, 2023. "Daily news sentiment and monthly surveys: A mixed-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 266-278.
  78. Larisa Adamyan & Kirill Efimov & Cathy Y. Chen & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2020. "Adaptive weights clustering of research papers," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 169-187, December.
  79. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2023. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under Covid-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1548-1563.
  80. Ilias Filippou & Christian Garciga & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2024. "Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(08), pages 1-8, April.
  81. Javier Maldonado & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Accurate Confidence Regions for Principal Components Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1432-1453, December.
  82. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
  83. Sonya Georgieva, 2023. "Application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Conduct of Monetary Policy by Central Banks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 177-199.
  84. Cerqueti, Roy & Ficcadenti, Valerio & Mattera, Raffaele, 2024. "Investors’ attention and network spillover for commodity market forecasting," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  85. repec:fip:fedcwq:98080 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-013 is not listed on IDEAS
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