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Nowcasting Italian industrial production: The predictive role of lubricant oils

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  • Fruzzetti, Marco
  • Ropele, Tiziano

Abstract

We investigate the predictive power of industrial lubricant oils for nowcasting the month-on-month growth rate of the Italian industrial production, using a set of advanced econometric models and various robustness checks. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of industrial lubricant oil data significantly improves the nowcast accuracy and outperforms models that exclude them in the post-pandemic period characterized by increased economic volatility, energy market disruptions and evolving structural dynamics. These findings suggest that industrial lubricant oils may serve as a more reliable economic indicator than other commonly used energy-related predictors, such as industrial gas consumption. As such, industrial lubricants represent a promising economic indicator for improving the accuracy of nowcasts of industrial activity, also in the context of structural changes, including the ongoing green transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Fruzzetti, Marco & Ropele, Tiziano, 2026. "Nowcasting Italian industrial production: The predictive role of lubricant oils," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325009387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109108
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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