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Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Do Demographic Trends + Productivity Outlook = Modest Economic Growth?
    by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-03-19 20:24:11

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jeffrey Clemens, 2015. "The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence from the Current Population Survey," NBER Working Papers 21830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
  3. Christian vom Lehn & Eric Fisher & Aspen Gorry, 2018. "Male Labor Supply and Generational Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 121-149, April.
  4. John C. Williams, 2016. "After the first rate hike," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2020-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 02 Nov 2020.
  6. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends," Working Paper 19-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy : a speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 19, 2017," Speech 935, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. David Cho & Daniel I. García & Joshua Montes & Alison E. Weingarden, 2021. "Labor Market Effects of the Oxycodone-Heroin Epidemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Diego Danny ONTANEDA JIMÉNEZ & Wilson Alejandro GUZMÁN ESPINOZA & Luis Rodrigo MENDIETA MUÑOZ & Monica RĂILEANU SZELES, 2022. "Cohort Analysis of Labor Participation and Sectoral Composition of Employment in Ecuador," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 67-87, October.
  10. Verdugo, Gregory & Allègre, Guillaume, 2020. "Labour force participation and job polarization: Evidence from Europe during the Great Recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  11. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
  12. Borjas, George J., 2017. "The labor supply of undocumented immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
  13. Nicholas Apergis & Ibrahim Arisoy, 2017. "Unemployment and labor force participation across the US States: new evidence from panel data," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(4), pages 45-84, October-D.
  14. Carlos Arteta & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocke, 2015. "The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1522, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  15. Debra L. Brucker & Nicholas G. Rollins & Andrew J. Houtenville, 2018. "Striving to Work," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 541-558, September.
  16. Jeremy W Bray & Brooks Depro & Dorren McMahon & Marion Siegle & Lee Mobley, 2016. "Disconnected Geography: A Spatial Analysis of Disconnected Youth in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 317-342, September.
  17. Jonathan Willis & Didem Tuzemen, 2017. "How Has Job Polarization Contributed to the Increase in Non-Participation of Prime-Age Men?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. John C. Williams, 2016. "Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
  20. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
  21. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
  22. James Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2020. "Nominal GDP Targeting with Heterogeneous Labor Supply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 37-77, February.
  23. Francesco GrigoliBy & Zsoka Koczan & Petia Topalova, 2021. "A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies [Labor force participation: recent developments and future prospects]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 623-643.
  24. Callum Jones, 2018. "Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2018/067, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Yagan, Danny, 2016. "The Enduring Employment Impact of Your Great Recession Location," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt12d0w9bs, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  26. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
  27. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2017. "The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-34.
  28. Jeffrey Clemens, 2019. "Cross‐Country Evidence on Labor Market Institutions and Young Adult Employment through the Financial Crisis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 573-612, October.
  29. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell, 2015. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Labor Force Participation," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 17.
  30. Clemens, Jeffrey, 2016. "The Low-Skilled Labor Market from 2002 to 2014: Measurement and Mechanisms," MPRA Paper 75690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "So We All Can Succeed: 125 Years of Women's Participation in the Economy : a speech at \"125 Years of Women at Brown Conference,\" sponsored by Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, Ma," Speech 952, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Lael Brainard, 2017. "Why Persistent Employment Disparities Matter for the Economy's Health : a speech at \"Disparities in the Labor Market: What Are We Missing?\" a research conference sponsored by the Board of ," Speech 970, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Hess T. Chung & Bruce Fallick & Christopher J. Nekarda & David Ratner, 2014. "Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-109, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
  35. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
  36. Jaimovich, Nir & Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Siu, Henry & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2021. "The macroeconomics of automation: Data, theory, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-16.
  37. Henry R. Hyatt & Tucker S. McElroy, 2017. "Labor Reallocation, Employment, and Earnings: Vector Autoregression Evidence," Working Papers 17-11r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  38. Dean Hyslop & Amy Rice & Hayden Skilling, 2019. "Understanding labour market developments in New Zealand, 1986-2017," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  39. Michael Elsby & David Ratner & Ryan Michaels, 2018. "The Wages of Nonemployment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1077, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  40. Danny Yagan, 2019. "Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2505-2558.
  41. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
  42. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Riccardo Trezzi & Abigail Wozniak, 2016. "Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 183-259.
  43. Henningsen, Geraldine & Wiese, Catharina, 2019. "Do Household Characteristics Really Matter? A Meta-Analysis on the Determinants of Households’ Energy-Efficiency Investments," MPRA Paper 101701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
  45. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Jon Samuels, 2019. "Educational Intensity and the Sources of, and Prospects for, U.S. Economic Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 161-186, Spring.
  46. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mai Dao & Mr. Juan Sole & Jeremy Zook, 2015. "Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?," IMF Working Papers 2015/076, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Damon Jones & Alexander M. Gelber & Daniel W. Sacks & Jae Song, 2017. "Using Kinked Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers 2017-034, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  48. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, uncertainty, and monetary policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 194-207, October.
  49. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
  50. Gordon, Robert J., 2018. "Declining American economic growth despite ongoing innovation," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-12.
  51. Jorgenson, Dale & Ho, Mun & Samuels, Jon, 2019. "Recent U.S. economic performance and prospects for future growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 459-476.
  52. Dunsch, Sophie, 2016. "Does labor force participation rates of youth vary within the business cycle? Evidence from Germany and Poland," Discussion Papers 386, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  53. Park, Seonyoung, 2018. "A structural explanation of recent changes in life-cycle labor supply and fertility behavior of married women in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 129-168.
  54. Robert Fay & James Ketcheson, 2016. "The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?," Staff Analytical Notes 16-9, Bank of Canada.
  55. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?," NBER Working Papers 24554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Matteo G Richiardi & Brian Nolan & Lane Kenworthy, 2020. "What happened to the ‘Great American Jobs Machine’?," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 13(1), pages 19-51.
  57. Michael Callaghan & Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2018. "Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  58. John C. Williams, 2017. "Looking Back, Looking Ahead," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  59. Anat Bracha & Mary A. Burke, 2016. "Who counts as employed?: informal work, employment status, and labor market slack," Working Papers 16-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  60. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2014. "Just the Facts: Demographic and Cross-Country Dimensions of the Employment Slump," MPRA Paper 60228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
  62. Canyon Bosler & Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Bart Hobijn, 2017. "The Outlook for US Labor-Quality Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 61-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Henry R. Hyatt & James R. Spletzer, 2016. "The Shifting Job Tenure Distribution†," Working Papers 16-12r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  64. Stephen Byrne & Martin D. O’Brien, 2017. "Understanding Irish Labour Force Participation," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 27-60.
  65. Olivier J. Blanchard, 2017. "Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," NBER Working Papers 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Krzysztof Bartosik, 2020. "Świadczenia pieniężne na rzecz dzieci a podaż pracy kobiet w krajach OECD," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 83-110.
  67. L. Ferrara. & G. Sestieri., 2014. "US labour market and monetary policy: current debates and challenges," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 36, pages 111-129, winter.
  68. Fujita, Shigeru, 2018. "Declining labor turnover and turbulence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-19.
  69. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the \"Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals\" 59th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, C," Speech 971, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  70. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "Missing Workers and Missing Jobs Since the Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Ross Richardson & Lia Pacelli & Ambra Poggi & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 5-51.
  72. Robert J. GORDON, 2015. "Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: U.S. Producivity Growth in the Long Run," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 19-45, 4th quart.
  73. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The shifting job tenure distribution," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 363-377.
  74. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Alexander M. Gelber & Damon Jones & Daniel W. Sacks & Jae Song, 2017. "Using Non-Linear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test," NBER Working Papers 23362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
  77. James Ketcheson & Natalia Kyui & Benoit Vincent, 2017. "Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 17-9, Bank of Canada.
  78. Gordon, Robert J., 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears To Be Accelerating?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  79. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.
  80. Randal K. Quarles, 2018. "An Assessment of the U.S. Economy : a speech at \"Promoting Sustained Growth: Policy Tensions and Risks\" 34th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., February 26, 2018," Speech 990, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  81. Rebecca M. Blank, 2016. "What Drives American Competitiveness?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 663(1), pages 8-30, January.
  82. John C. Williams, 2016. "Longview: The Economic Outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  83. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2022. "The updated Okun method for estimation of potential output with alternative measures of labor underutilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 158-178.
  84. John C. Williams, 2016. "The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  85. Jamie Culling & Hayden Skilling, 2018. "How does New Zealand stack up? A comparison of labour supply across the OECD," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 81, pages 1-19, April.
  86. Thomas Masterson & Ajit Zacharias & Fernando Rios-Avila & Edward N. Wolff, 2019. "The Great Recession and Racial Inequality: Evidence from Measures of Economic Well-Being," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 1048-1069, October.
  87. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 31-56.
  88. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  89. Puigvert Jonathan & Juárez-Torres Miriam, 2019. "Labour Force Participation and the Business Cycle in Mexico," Working Papers 2019-04, Banco de México.
  90. John C. Williams, 2015. "Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  91. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
  92. Selcen ÖZTÜRK, 2018. "Türkiye’de İşgücüne Katılımda Bölgesel Farklılıklar," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
  93. Tanweer Akram, 2019. "Prospects and Risks for the Global Economy in 2019," CPD Working Paper 130, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
  94. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  95. Nellie Zhao & Henry Hyatt & Isabel Cairo, 2016. "The U.S. Job Ladder and the Low-Wage Jobs of the New Millennium," 2016 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  96. Luman Zhao & Yabin Zhang & Yuefeng Xie, 2023. "Does the Aging of the Chinese Population Have an Impact on Outward Foreign Direct Investment?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-24, September.
  97. Lael Brainard, 2015. "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy : a speech at the \"North America's Place in a Changing World Economy,\" 57th National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C," Speech 869, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  98. John C. Williams, 2016. "Now that Winter is over, springtime is on my mind. Speech to the Sacramento Economic Forum, Sacramento, California, May 13, 2016," Speech 167, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  99. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
  100. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
  101. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  102. John C. Williams, 2016. "Trick of the light? The U.S. economy, global growth, and international risks in perspective. A speech at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and U.S. Embassy Speaker Series, Singapore, Singapore,," Speech 165, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  103. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew T. Levin, 2015. "Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 21094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  104. Gagnon, Etienne & Johannsen, Benjamin K. & López-Salido, David, 2018. "Comment on the demographic deficit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 63-67.
  105. Jerome H. Powell, 2020. "New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review: a speech at "Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Feder," Speech 88646, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  106. Lael Brainard, 2016. "The \"New Normal\" and What It Means for Monetary Policy : a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago, Illinois, September 12, 2016," Speech 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  107. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
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