An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk
This paper investigates the link between development, economic growth, and the economic losses from natural disasters in a general analytical framework, with an illustration on hurricane flood risks in New Orleans. It concludes that, where capital accumulates through increased density of capital at risk in a given area, (i) the probability of disaster occurrence decreases with income; (ii) capital at risk – and thus economic losses in case of disaster -- increases faster than economic growth; (iii) increasing risk-taking reinforces economic growth. Economic growth and improved protection transfer risks from frequent low-intensity events to rarer high-impact events. In this context, average annual losses from disasters grow with income, and they grow faster than income at low levels of development and slower than income at high levels of development. These findings are robust to a broad range of modeling choices and parameter values, to the inclusion of risk aversion, and to variations in the decision-making framework (including the introduction of prospect theory's decision weights, biases in risk perception and myopic expectations). They show that risk-taking is both a driver and a consequence of economic development, that risk taking should not be indiscriminately suppressed, and that the world is very likely to experience fewer but more costly disasters in the future.
|Date of creation:||01 Oct 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Tabourier, Lionel, 2012.
"Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
- Henriet, F. & Hallegatte, S. & Tabourier, L., 2011. "Firm-Network Characteristics and Economic Robustness to Natural Disasters," Working papers 355, Banque de France.
- Silvio Schmidt & Claudia Kemfert & Peter Höppe, 2008. "Tropical Cyclone Losses in the USA and the Impact of Climate Change: A Trend Analysis Based on a New Dataset," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 802, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Somik V. Lall & Uwe Deichmann, 2012.
"Density and Disasters: Economics of Urban Hazard Risk,"
World Bank Research Observer,
World Bank Group, vol. 27(1), pages 74-105, February.
- Lall, Somik V. & Deichmann, Uwe, 2009. "Density and disasters: economics of urban hazard risk," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5161, The World Bank.
- Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
- Loayza, Norman & Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2009.
"Natural disasters and growth - going beyond the averages,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4980, The World Bank.
- Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
- Arrow, Kenneth J & Lind, Robert C, 1970. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 364-78, June.
- Colin F. Camerer & Howard Kunreuther, 1989. "Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 565-592.
- Fields, Gary S., 1975. "Rural-urban migration, urban unemployment and underemployment, and job-search activity in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 165-187, June.
- Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5617, The World Bank.
- W. Kip Viscusi & Joseph E. Aldy, 2003.
"The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World,"
NBER Working Papers
9487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. " The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
- Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1995. "Regulation, moral hazard and insurance of environmental risks," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 319-336, November.
- Louis Kaplow, 1989.
"Incentives and Government Relief for Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
3007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ciccone, Antonio, 2002.
"Agglomeration effects in Europe,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 213-227, February.
- Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
- Hallegatte, Stephane & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Dumas, Patrice, 2007. "Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 330-340, April.
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2005.
"Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters,"
05-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
- Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
- Thomas Fomby & Yuki Ikeda & Norman V. Loayza, 2013.
"The Growth Aftermath Of Natural Disasters,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 412-434, 04.
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 14-24, 07.
- Raymond Burby & Arthur Nelson & Dennis Parker & John Handmer, 2001. "Urban Containment Policy and Exposure to Natural Hazards: Is There a Connection?," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 475-490.
- Lewis, Tracy & Nickerson, David, 1989. "Self-insurance against natural disasters," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 209-223, May.
- Hogarth, Robin M & Kunreuther, Howard, 1995. "Decision Making under Ignorance: Arguing with Yourself," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 15-36, January.
- Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
- Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
- Schumacher, Ingmar & Strobl, Eric, 2011. "Economic development and losses due to natural disasters: The role of hazard exposure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-105.
- repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6058, The World Bank.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2010. "The Economics Of Hurricanes And Implications Of Global Warming," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-20.
- Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer & Koko Warner & Christoph Bals & Peter H�ppe & Ian Burton & Thomas Loster & Armin Haas, 2009. "Insurance, Developing Countries and Climate Change," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 381-400, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.