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Ensuring robust flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city

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  • Cira,Dean A.
  • Kalra,Nidhi Rajiv
  • Lempert,Robert J.
  • Lotsch,Alexander
  • Mao, Zhimin
  • Peyraud, Suzanne
  • Bach,Sinh Tan

Abstract

Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may be insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from projections made when those efforts were initially planned. This study demonstrates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep uncertainty. Robust decision making is an iterative, quantitative, decision support methodology designed to help policy makers identify strategies that are robust, that is, satisfying decision makers'objectives in many plausible futures, rather than being optimal in any single estimate of the future. This project used robust decision making to analyze flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh City's Nhieu Loc-Thi Nghe canal catchment area. It found that the soon-to-be-completed infrastructure may reduce risk in best estimates of future conditions, but it may not keep risk low in many other plausible futures. Thus, the infrastructure may not be sufficiently robust. The analysis further suggests that adaptation and retreat measures, particularly when used adaptively, can play an important role in reducing this risk. The study examines the conditions under which robust decision making concepts and full robust decision making analyses may prove useful in developing countries. It finds that planning efforts in developing countries should at minimum use models and data to evaluate their decisions under a wide range of conditions. Full robust decision making analyses can also augment existing planning efforts in numerous ways.

Suggested Citation

  • Cira,Dean A. & Kalra,Nidhi Rajiv & Lempert,Robert J. & Lotsch,Alexander & Mao, Zhimin & Peyraud, Suzanne & Bach,Sinh Tan, 2013. "Ensuring robust flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6465, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. J. Nicholls & S. Hanson & Celine Herweijer & Nicola Patmore & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Jean Château & Robert Muir-Wood, 2008. "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates," OECD Environment Working Papers 1, OECD Publishing.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk," Post-Print hal-00802047, HAL.
    3. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    4. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
    5. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12746, The World Bank.
    6. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12504, The World Bank.
    7. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Vietnam," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12747, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Policies; Non Bank Financial Institutions; Debt Markets; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions; Hazard Risk Management;

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