Polish high unemployment and spatial labor turnover. Insights from panel data analysis using unemployment registry data

This paper uses the insights from the Optimal Speed of Transition literature to inquire the causes of relatively higher unemployment rate in a transition context. We study whether local variation in unemployment rates is related to labor turnover. In addition, the paper aims to assess the relative impact of inflow and outflow from unemployment on the dynamics of the local unemployment rate. The empirical analysis is based on a newly available unique dataset from the employment registry of a transition economy (Poland), encompassing nine years of monthly data (from 2000 to 2008) at a county (poviat) level. We find that turnover, as well as inflows and outflows separately, are ceteris paribus positively related to the unemployment level. This general conclusion is robust to stratification, model specification as well as spatial effects. We find that elasticity is larger in the case of the inflow rate than for the outflow rate. Finally, we demonstrate that these effects are stronger in low unemployment regions.