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State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Barthélemy

    (Banque de France)

  • Magali Marx

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

Dans ce papier, nous proposons une méthode de résolution de modèles non linéaires à anticipations rationnelles dans lesquels les changements de régimes ou les chocs eux-même peuvent être "endogènes", c'est-à-dire suivre des distributions de probabilités dépendant de l'état de l'économie. Par une méthode de perturbation, nous trouvons des conditions de détermination, i.e. des conditions d'existence d'un unique équilibre stable. Nous montrons que ces conditions découlent directement des conditions correspondantes dans le modèle à changements de régimes exogènes. Bien que ces conditions soient difficiles à vérifier dans le cas général, nous donnons, dans le cas des modèles à changements de régimes purement tournés vers le futur, des conditions de détermination faciles à calculer et une approximation au premier ordre de la solution. Enfin, nous illustrons nos résultats avec un modèle de Fisher de détermination d'inflation dans lequel la règle de politique monétaire change entre les régimes selon une matrice de transition dépendant de l'état de l'économie.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Sciences Po publications 347, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7l23tbn4rd9539sljmp8of2hcb
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barthélemy, J. & Marx, M., 2012. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: New Comment," Working papers 403, Banque de France.
    2. Junior Maih, 2014. "Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers No 10/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    4. Holden, Thomas, 2016. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 130142, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    5. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2012. "Solving Rational Expectations Models," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3ug0u3qte39, Sciences Po.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perturbation Methods; Monetary Policy; Indeterminancy; Regime Switching; DGSE;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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