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Structural Transformation and the Rise of Information Technology

Author

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  • Giovanni Gallipoli

    (Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, Canada; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Christos A. Makridis

    (Department of Management Science & Engineering, Department of Economics, Stanford University, USA)

Abstract

Has the emergence of information technology changed the structure of employment and earnings in the US? We propose a new index of occupation-level IT intensity and document several long-term changes in the occupational landscape over the past decades. Using Census micro-data between 1970 and 2015, we show that: (i) the share of workers in IT-intensive jobs has expanded significantly, with little or no pause; (ii) IT jobs enjoy a large and growing earnings premium, even after controlling for general task requirements (e.g., cognitive, non-routine); and (iii) the rise of the IT employment share is closely associated with declines in the manufacturing employment share. Although the earnings premia for college-educated and high cognitive/non-routine skilled workers have declined in the aggregate since 2000, we show that they have continued growing in IT jobs. We subsequently introduce an equilibrium model of occupational sorting based on comparative advantage between IT and non-IT jobs to quantify the contribution of IT jobs towards accelerating the pace of structural transformation. Our results suggest that technological growth among IT jobs has played a major role in accounting for the surge in high tech service labor productivity since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Gallipoli & Christos A. Makridis, 2017. "Structural Transformation and the Rise of Information Technology," Working Paper series 17-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-30
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    Cited by:

    1. Makridis, Christos & McNab, Robert, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of COVID-19: Evidence from the States," Working Papers 10702, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    2. Ashworth, Jared & Ransom, Tyler, 2019. "Has the college wage premium continued to rise? Evidence from multiple U.S. surveys," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 149-154.
    3. Vanessa ALVIAREZ & CHEN Cheng & Nitya PANDALAI-NAYAR & Liliana VARELA & YI Kei-Mu & ZHANG Hongyong, 2021. "Multinationals and Structural Transformation," Discussion papers 21100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Tiare Rivera, 2019. "Efectos de la automatización en el empleo en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 3-49, April.
    5. João Granja & Christos Makridis & Constantine Yannelis & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?," Working Papers 2020-52_Revised, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. Lin, Gary C., 2019. "High-skilled immigration and native task specialization in U.S. cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 289-305.
    7. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    8. Christos A. Makridis & Barry T. Hirsch, 2021. "The Labor Market Earnings of Veterans: Is Military Experience More or Less Valuable than Civilian Experience?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 303-333, December.
    9. Giovanni Gallipoli & Christos A. Makridis, 2022. "Sectoral digital intensity and GDP growth after a large employment shock: A simple extrapolation exercise," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 446-479, February.
    10. Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Comment on “Structural transformation and the rise of information technology” by Gallipoli and Makridis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 111-116.
    11. Nikolay Didenko & Djamilia Skripnuk & Kseniia Kikkas & Olga Kalinina & Eryk Kosinski, 2021. "The Impact of Digital Transformation on the Micrologistic System, and the Open Innovation in Logistics," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, April.
    12. Selale Tuzel & Miao Ben Zhang, 2021. "Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine‐Task Jobs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3347-3399, December.
    13. Galindo da Fonseca, João Alfredo & Gallipoli, Giovanni & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2020. "Match quality and contractual sorting," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Giovanni Gallipoli & Khalil Esmkhani & Michael Böhm, 2019. "Skill-Biased Firms and the Distribution of Labor Market Returns," 2019 Meeting Papers 1199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Makridis, Christos A. & Han, Joo Hun, 2021. "Future of work and employee empowerment and satisfaction: Evidence from a decade of technological change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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