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Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation

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  • Kopytov, Alexandr
  • Roussanov, Nikolai
  • Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence suggests that skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with a long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, the adoption of new technologies by firms and the acquisition of new skills by workers are concentrated in downturns due to low opportunity costs. As a result, shocks lead to deeper recessions, but they also speed up adoption of the new technology. Our calibrated model matches both the long-run downward trend in routine employment and key features of the Great Recession.

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  • Kopytov, Alexandr & Roussanov, Nikolai & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 29-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:97:y:2018:i:c:p:29-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.05.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. Capucine Riom & Anna Valero, 2020. "The business response to Covid-19: the CEP-CBI survey on technology adoption," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-009, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. García-Vega, María & Gupta, Apoorva & Kneller, Richard, 2023. "Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation?," DICE Discussion Papers 403, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    4. Blit, Joel, 2020. "Automation and reallocation: The lasting legacy of COVID-19 in Canada," CLEF Working Paper Series 31, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    5. Lin, Xiaoji & Palazzo, Berardino & Yang, Fan, 2020. "The risks of old capital age: Asset pricing implications of technology adoption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-161.
    6. Alexandr Kopytov & Nikolai Roussanov & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2023. "Cheap Thrills: The Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 80-118.
    7. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Cruz, Gabriel & Micco, Alejandro, 2022. "COVID-19 and automation in a developing economy: Evidence from Chile," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    8. Filippo Mezzanotti & Timothy Simcoe, 2023. "Research and/or Development? Financial Frictions and Innovation Investment," Working Papers 23-39, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Blit, Joel, 2020. "Is increasing productivity COVID-19's silver lining?," CLEF Working Paper Series 30, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    10. Fan, Haichao & Hu, Yichuan & Tang, Lixin, 2021. "Labor costs and the adoption of robots in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 608-631.
    11. García-Vega, María, 2022. "R&D restructuring during the Great Recession and young firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job polarization; Routine-biased technical change; Business cycle; Human capital investment; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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