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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Credit Rating Decisions: Panel Quantile Evidence for the Eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Periklis Boumparis

    () (University of Liverpool, UK)

  • Costas Milas

    () (Management School, University of Liverpool, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

Abstract

We employ a panel quantile framework that quantifies the relative importance of quantitative and qualitative factors across the conditional distribution of sovereign credit ratings in the Eurozone area. We find that regulatory quality and competitiveness have a stronger impact for low rated countries whereas GDP per capita is a major driver of high rated countries. A reduction in the current account deficit leads to a rating or outlook upgrade for low rated countries. Economic policy uncertainty impacts negatively on credit ratings across the conditional distribution; however, the impact is stronger for the lower rated countries. In other words, the creditworthiness of low rated countries takes a much bigger ‘hit’ than that of high rated countries when European policy uncertainty is on the rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Periklis Boumparis & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Credit Rating Decisions: Panel Quantile Evidence for the Eurozone," Working Paper series 17-21, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Tweets, Google trends, and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 406-432.
    2. R. S.J. Koijen & F. Koulischer & B. Nguyen & M. Yogo, 2016. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: The Dynamics of Risk Exposures and the Impact on Asset Prices," Working papers 601, Banque de France.
    3. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4108, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    5. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies? Panel evidence from the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 118-124.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    7. José Abad & Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2013. "Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 48(1), pages 51-58, January.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    10. Miles Livingston & Jie (Diana) Wei & Lei Zhou, 2010. "Moody's and S&P Ratings: Are They Equivalent? Conservative Ratings and Split Rated Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1267-1293, October.
    11. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    12. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on European syndicated loan spreads: The role of the rating-based regulation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 213-231.
    13. Francisco Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez‐Vives, 2013. "Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1187-1209, September.
    14. Mariano, Beatriz, 2012. "Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1616-1626.
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    16. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," Chemnitz Economic Papers 019, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    2. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit ratings; sovereign debt; panel quantile; Eurozone; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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