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Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals

Author

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  • Carmen Broto

    () (Banco de España)

  • Luis Molina

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Changes in sovereign ratings are strongly asymmetric, as downgrades tend to be deeper and faster than upgrades. In other words, once a country loses its initial status it takes a long time to recover it. Using S&P data, we characterise “rating cycles” in terms of their duration and amplitude. We then study whether the agency reaction to new economic and financial domestic information also differs during upgrade and downgrade phases. Our results indicate that favourable fundamentals could be helpful for smoothing and slowing down the path of downgrades, whereas favourable fundamentals do not seem to accelerate the rating recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Broto & Luis Molina, 2014. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Working Papers 1428, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1428
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    1. L’asymétrique réponse des notations souveraines aux fondamentaux
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-14 23:57:00

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    Cited by:

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    2. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Wu, Eliza, 2020. "Syndicated bank lending and rating downgrades: Do sovereign ceiling policies really matter?," MPRA Paper 102941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Krishna Reddy & Rudi Bosman & Nawazish Mirza, 2019. "Impact Of Credit Ratings On Stock Returns," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Myriam Ben Ayed & Adel Karaa & Jean‐Luc Prigent, 2018. "Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1870-1886, July.
    5. Iván Kataryniuk & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Fiscal consolidation after the Great Recession: the role of composition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 563-585.
    6. Guillaume Horny & Simone Manganelli & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-1, October.
    7. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Wu, Eliza, 2020. "Loan syndication under Basel II: How firm credit ratings affect the cost of credit?," MPRA Paper 102796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego Silveira Pacheco Oliveira, 2019. "Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 417-433, April.

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    Keywords

    sovereign credit ratings; rating cycle; emerging countries; panel data model.;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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