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Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Myriam Ben Ayed
  • Adel Karaa

    (ISG Tunis - ISG Tunis)

  • Jean-Luc Prigent

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Myriam Ben Ayed & Adel Karaa & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2018. "Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis," Post-Print hal-03679407, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03679407
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12561
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    Cited by:

    1. Brent, Daniel A. & Ren, Yongwang & Wrenn, Douglas H., 2024. "Flood Risk and Property Market," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343651, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:343651 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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