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Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings

Author

Listed:
  • Periklis Boumparis

    (University of Liverpool, UK)

  • Costas Milas

    (Management School, University of Liverpool, UK; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

Abstract

This paper examines the joint behaviour of sovereign ratings and their macroeconomic/financial determinants (namely uncertainty, GDP growth, government debt-to-GDP ratio, investment-to-GDP ratio and the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio) in a multivariate Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) framework. We reveal another channel of interconnection between sovereign and banking credit risk by identifying a two-way relationship between non-performing loans (NPLs) and sovereign ratings. Generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs) provide evidence of significant effects from NPLs on sovereign rating decisions over and above the effects of the remaining economic/financial variables. At the same time, sovereign rating decisions impact on NPLs and all other variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Periklis Boumparis & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2019. "Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings," Working Paper series 19-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:19-13
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abinzano, Isabel & Corredor, Pilar & Mansilla-Fernández, José Manuel, 2022. "Sovereign debt holdings and banks’ credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    3. Chen, Xia & Zhao, Xinxin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2023. "The shocks of natural disasters on NPLs: Global evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    4. Agus Sugiarto & Ni Nyoman Puspani & Mustika Septiyas Trisilia, 2023. "The Shocks of Climate Change on Bank Loans," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 493-514, September.
    5. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. González-Velasco, Carmen & García-López, Marcos & González-Fernández, Marcos, 2022. "Does sovereign risk impact banking risk in the Eurozone? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    7. Ahmad Rado Rizkullah & Suhel & Sri Andaiyani, 2023. "Determinants of Credit Growth: An Empirical Study of Commercial Banks in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(2), pages 404-424.
    8. Acheampong, Albert & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2021. "Does soft information determine credit risk? Text-based evidence from European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Cicchiello, Antonella Francesca & Cotugno, Matteo & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2022. "Do capital buffers matter? Evidence from the stocks and flows of nonperforming loans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Damilola Oyetade & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2023. "Country Risk and Financial Stability: A Focus on Commercial Banks in Africa," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1, November.
    11. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    12. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Salvador, Carlos & Suárez, Nuria, 2021. "Am I riskier if I rescue my banks? Beyond the effects of bailouts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit ratings; Non-performing loans; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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