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Potential Economic Effects of the Reduction in Agricultural and Nonagricultural Trade Barriers in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

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  • Caesar, Cororaton
  • David, Orden

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to provide a preliminary assessment of the potential economic effects in the U.S. and EU28 of a reduction in their bilateral trade barriers. Using a global CGE model the paper develops four trade barrier reduction scenarios and analyzed their impact on trade, production, factor prices, and welfare in the two economies for a 10-year period through 2024 compared to a baseline without reductions. The scenarios are: (i) 90% reduction in tariffs only; (ii) 90% and 20% reductions in tariffs and NTMs, respectively, for all sectors; (iii) 90% and 20% reductions in tariffs and NTMs in non-agriculture only; and (iv) 90% reduction in both tariffs and NTMs. Results indicate largest percentage increases in bilateral trade for agriculture/food sectors when liberalization includes these sectors, but that most of the gains are in non-agriculture due to its predominance in production and initial trade flows. Only the fourth scenario reverses the baseline downward trend through 2024 in U.S.-EU28 bilateral trade as a share of their global totals.

Suggested Citation

  • Caesar, Cororaton & David, Orden, 2016. "Potential Economic Effects of the Reduction in Agricultural and Nonagricultural Trade Barriers in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," MPRA Paper 74773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Oct 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74773
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74773/1/MPRA_paper_74773.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Josling, Timothy E. & Roberts, Donna & Orden, David, 2004. "Food Regulation And Trade: Toward A Safe And Open Global System -- An Overview And Synopsis," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20008, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Olper, Alessandro & Raimondi, Valentina, 2008. "Agricultural market integration in the OECD: A gravity-border effect approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-175, April.
    7. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December.
    8. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    9. Timothy E. Josling & Donna Roberts & David Orden, 2004. "Food Regulation and Trade: Toward a Safe and Open Global System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 347.
    10. Raza, Werner & Grumiller, Jan & Taylor, Lance & Tröster, Bernhard & von Arnim, Rudi, 2014. "ASSESS_TTIP: Assessing the claimed benefits of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," Policy Notes 10/2014, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP); Regional trade; United States; European Union 28; Global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; Tariffs; Non-tariff measures (NTM);

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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