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Population aging and bank risk-taking

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  • Doerr, Sebastian
  • Kabas, Gazi
  • Ongena, Steven

Abstract

Does population aging affect bank lending? To answer this question we exploit geographic variation in population aging across U.S. counties to provide the first evidence on its impact on bank risk-taking. We find that banks more exposed to aging counties experience deposit inflows due to seniors' higher savings rate. They consequently extend more credit, but relax lending standards: Loan-to-income ratios increase and application rejection rates decline. Exposed banks also see a sharper rise in nonperforming loans during downturns, suggesting that population aging may lead to financial instability. These results are in line with an increase in savings and a decline in investment opportunities induced by population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Doerr, Sebastian & Kabas, Gazi & Ongena, Steven, 2022. "Population aging and bank risk-taking," MPRA Paper 112426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112426
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Imam & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2024. "Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts," IMF Working Papers 2024/118, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Matthew D Eisenberg & Alexander McCourt & Elizabeth A Stuart & Lainie Rutkow & Kayla N Tormohlen & Michael I Fingerhood & Luis Quintero & Sarah A White & Emma Elizabeth McGinty, 2021. "Studying how state health services delivery policies can mitigate the effects of disasters on drug addiction treatment and overdose: Protocol for a mixed-methods study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Aden Kadir & Dirir Sadik Aden, 2023. "Charting the Course for Sustainable Aging: Socio-Environmental and Economic Impacts on Djiboutian Elderly Population," Culture. Society. Economy. Politics, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 10-36, June.
    4. Sebastian Doerr & Thomas Drechsel & Donggyu Lee, 2021. "Income inequality, financial intermediation, and small firms," BIS Working Papers 944, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Yavuz Arslan & Ahmet Degerli & Gazi Kabas, 2019. "Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Lo, Andrew W. & Thakor, Richard T., 2023. "Financial intermediation and the funding of biomedical innovation: A review," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Sarah Yanyue Yu, 2021. "An In Medias Res Economic Cost‐Benefit Analysis of ACT Container Deposit Scheme," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(1), pages 78-90, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-taking; financial stability; low interest rates; population aging; demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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