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Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Doerr

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Gazi Kabas

    (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Steven Ongena

    (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

The population aged 65 and older will grow at an unprecedented pace over the next decade in most advanced economies. But what does population aging imply for banking? Exploiting geographic variation in the change in seniors across U.S. counties, we show that higher savings by seniors lead to a local increase in bank deposits. We then establish that banks more exposed to aging counties increase the supply of credit while relaxing their lending standards. Exposed banks increase loan-to-income ratios by more and have lower application rejection rates. They also see a sharper rise in nonperforming loans during the Great Recession. Risk-taking is more pronounced among banks with lower capital ratios, in more competitive markets or where banks operate no branches. These findings are robust to the inclusion of bank and county controls, granular fixed effects, and to an instrumental variable strategy. Our results suggest that population aging detrimentally affects financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Doerr & Gazi Kabas & Steven Ongena, 2020. "Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-62, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2062
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Imam & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2024. "Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts," IMF Working Papers 2024/118, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Matthew D Eisenberg & Alexander McCourt & Elizabeth A Stuart & Lainie Rutkow & Kayla N Tormohlen & Michael I Fingerhood & Luis Quintero & Sarah A White & Emma Elizabeth McGinty, 2021. "Studying how state health services delivery policies can mitigate the effects of disasters on drug addiction treatment and overdose: Protocol for a mixed-methods study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Aden Kadir & Dirir Sadik Aden, 2023. "Charting the Course for Sustainable Aging: Socio-Environmental and Economic Impacts on Djiboutian Elderly Population," Culture. Society. Economy. Politics, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 10-36, June.
    4. Lo, Andrew W. & Thakor, Richard T., 2023. "Financial intermediation and the funding of biomedical innovation: A review," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Sebastian Doerr & Thomas Drechsel & Donggyu Lee, 2021. "Income inequality, financial intermediation, and small firms," BIS Working Papers 944, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Sarah Yanyue Yu, 2021. "An In Medias Res Economic Cost‐Benefit Analysis of ACT Container Deposit Scheme," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(1), pages 78-90, March.
    7. Yavuz Arslan & Ahmet Degerli & Gazi Kabas, 2025. "Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(4), pages 2847-2866, April.
    8. Lugo, Stefano, 2025. "Inequality and capital structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Wang, Hua & Chen, Yaorui, 2024. "The impact of population aging on capital structure decisions and capital market efficiency: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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