IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/109394.html

Effect of Government Transfer on Money Supply: A Closer Look into the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi

Abstract

Although government transfer is a well-known fiscal variable, it can significantly influence the overall supply of money in the economy. Beneficiaries of government transfer program will consume a portion of it while the rest is saved and these initial savings will then be amplified inside the economy through the multiplier effect. Apart from consumption and savings a portion of government transfer will return to government in the form of taxes. Here, in the first place, we intuitively calculate the contribution of government transfer on private consumption, households' savings, government tax revenue and money supply. In the next step we provide a micro-foundation for our intuitive reasoning using a simple endowment economy with finitely lived households. Finally, we empirically calculate our proposed multipliers using impulse response analysis under structural panel VAR framework. Response of money supply to changes in government transfer uncovers a channel through which monetary and fiscal policy may interact. Moreover, variance decomposition of money supply indicates that a significant portion of variance in money supply can be explained in terms of government transfer under structural panel VAR framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi, 2021. "Effect of Government Transfer on Money Supply: A Closer Look into the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," MPRA Paper 109394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109394/1/MPRA_paper_109394.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:18:y:2003:i:37:p:533-572 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, June.
    3. Néstor Gandelman, 2017. "Do the rich save more in Latin America?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(1), pages 75-92, March.
    4. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Noritaka Kudoh, 2002. "Tight money policies and inflation revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 185-217, May.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Bovenberg, Lans, 2001. "Structural Distortions and Decentralized Fiscal Policies in EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia & Mr. Antonio Lemus & Mr. Mico Mrkaic, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU," IMF Working Papers 2013/117, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2007. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1759-1784, October.
    12. Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1522-1542, December.
    13. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    14. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 565-583, Winter.
    15. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "Issues in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 3-46.
    16. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
    17. Fisher, Jonathan D. & Johnson, David S. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Thompson, Jeffrey P., 2020. "Estimating the marginal propensity to consume using the distributions of income, consumption, and wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Fall), pages 14-23.
    19. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    20. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "Issues in the Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 0982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    22. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    24. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
    25. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    26. Athanasios Orphanides, 2018. "Independent Central Banks and the Interplay between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 447-470, June.
    27. Drazen, Allan, 1985. "Tight money and inflation: Further Results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 113-120, January.
    28. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. I. B. Petrosyan & Z. K. Papian, 2025. "Possibilities of Implementing Countercyclical and Procyclical Economic Policy in Times of Global Economic Crises the Case of the Republic of Armenia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 175-184, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    5. Francesco Caprioli & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro Tommasino, 2020. "Discretionary fiscal policy in the Euro area: Past, present and future," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(1), pages 55-85.
    6. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodr�guez & Jorge Toro & Santiago T�llez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187.
    7. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
    8. Afonso, António & Gonçalves, Luis, 2020. "The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi, 2020. "Some Amendments to the Algebraic Representation and Empirical Estimation of the Fiscal Multipliers," MPRA Paper 104346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
    11. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    12. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2023. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2125-2164.
    13. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    14. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Regionalne zróżnicowanie oddziaływania wydatków rządowych na zatrudnienie – wnioski z analizy SVAR," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 73-96.
    16. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
    17. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    18. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. "Erratum to "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S." [Journal of International Economics. Volume (74) 362-383]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 276-276, April.
    19. Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig & Schuh, Ulrich, 2014. "Auswirkungen von ausgaben- und einnahmenseitigen Konsolidierungen," Research Papers 2, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Marattin, Luigi & Salotti, Simone, 2011. "On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 780-795.
    22. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8, pages 1-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.