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Is the 'Quarter of Birth' Endogenous? Evidence From One Million Siblings in Taiwan

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  • Elliott Fan
  • Jin-Tan Liu
  • Yen-Chien Chen

Abstract

Recent studies based on US data have provided evidence to suggest that the 'quarter of birth' (QOB) may be endogenous and that the use of QOB as an instrumental variable will consequently produce inconsistent estimates (see Buckles and Hungerman, 2013). Such potential endogeneity is addressed in this study by estimating the effects of QOB on university attendance using a Taiwanese dataset on approximately one million siblings. Our estimations are mainly reliant upon the strength of the family fixed-effects model, a regression discontinuity design and a simulation procedure. Our results, in sharp contrast to the US findings, suggest that family background characteristics can explain very little of the relationship between QOB and the probability of university attendance at the age of 18. The disparity between the US and Taiwanese findings may be due to high-'socioeconomic status' (SES) women in the US disproportionately planning births away from the winter months, as suggested by Buckles and Hungerman (2013), whereas the seasonality of births is virtually identical for low- and high-SES mothers in Taiwan. Our findings imply that the endogeneity of QOB is of less concern in the case of Taiwan, perhaps due to the milder winter climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliott Fan & Jin-Tan Liu & Yen-Chien Chen, 2014. "Is the 'Quarter of Birth' Endogenous? Evidence From One Million Siblings in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 20444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20444
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    4. Cristina Bellés-Obrero & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall-Castello, 2015. "The Unintended Effects of Increasing the Legal Working Age on Family Behavior," Working Papers 833, Barcelona School of Economics.
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    6. Bechara, Peggy & Eilers, Lea & Paloyo, Alfredo R., 2015. "In Good Company – Neighborhood Quality and Female Employment," Ruhr Economic Papers 535, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Peggy Bechara & Lea Eilers & Alfredo R. Paloyo, 2014. "In Good Company – Neighborhood Quality and Female Employment," Ruhr Economic Papers 0535, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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