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The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

  • Richard Dickens


    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex
    Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics)

  • Rebecca Riley


    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research
    LLAKES, Institute of Education)

  • David Wilkinson


    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

A regression discontinuity approach is used to analyse the effect of the legislated increase in the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) that occurs at age 22 on various labour market outcomes. Using data from the Labour Force Survey we find a 2- 4% point increase in the employment rate of low skilled individuals. Unemployment declines among men and inactivity among women. We find no such effect before the NMW was introduced and no robust impacts at age 21 or 23 years. Our results are robust to a range of specification tests.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Sussex in its series Working Paper Series with number 2111.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:2111
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  1. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
  2. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "Estimating the Impact of the Minimum Wage Using Geographical Wage Variation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(s1), pages 583-605, 08.
  3. Mark B. Stewart, 2004. "The Impact of the Introduction of the U.K. Minimum Wage on the Employment Probabilities of Low-Wage Workers," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 67-97, 03.
  4. Richard Dickens & Alan Manning, 2002. "Has the national minimum wage reduced UK wage inequality?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20079, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
  6. David Card & Carlos Dobkin & Nicole Maestas, 2007. "Does Medicare Save Lives?," NBER Working Papers 13668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:oup:restud:v:79:y:2012:i:3:p:933-959 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. David Neumark & William L. Wascher, 2008. "Minimum Wages," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262141027, June.
  9. Richard Dickens & Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1994. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment: Theory and Evidence from Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0183, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Guido Imbens & Thomas Lemieux, 2007. "Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice," NBER Technical Working Papers 0337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
  12. David Card & Carlos Dobkin & Nicole Maestas, 2009. "Does Medicare Save Lives?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 597-636.
  13. Lee, David S. & Card, David, 2008. "Regression discontinuity inference with specification error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 655-674, February.
  14. Imbens, Guido W. & Kalyanaraman, Karthik, 2009. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," IZA Discussion Papers 3995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Linneman, Peter, 1982. "The Economic Impacts of Minimum Wage Laws: A New Look at an Old Question," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 443-69, June.
  16. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-09, January.
  17. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:124:y:2009:i:2:p:597-636 is not listed on IDEAS
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