IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9357.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ex-ante Evaluation of the Impact of Increases in Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes in Kosovo

Author

Listed:
  • Robayo,Monica
  • Terskaya,Anastasia
  • Koettl-Brodmann,Stefanie

Abstract

This paper uses microsimulation techniques to quantify the potential ex-ante impacts of several minimum wage increases on labor market outcomes in Kosovo. The results show that the overall impacts of a minimum wage increase in the baseline scenario are likely to be modest, although the impacts for some groups may be stronger. In the most extreme scenario, an increase to 250 euros per month, the simulated unemployment rate increases by 0.4 percentage point in the short term and about 0.6 percentage point in the long term. The youth unemployment rate (ages 15-24) is anticipated to increase by up to 1.1 percentage points in this scenario, a relatively large increase considering the already high levels of unemployment among this group. Similarly, unemployment among the unskilled (with primary school or less) is simulated to increase by 0.6 percentage point in the short term and up to 0.8 percentage point in the long term. The paper finds that, even if raising the minimum wage is long overdue, due to decreasing nominal wages in real terms, policy needs to strike a fine balance between protecting workers and ensuring that employment effects are not too large.

Suggested Citation

  • Robayo,Monica & Terskaya,Anastasia & Koettl-Brodmann,Stefanie, 2020. "Ex-ante Evaluation of the Impact of Increases in Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes in Kosovo," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9357, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/820291597160948272/pdf/Ex-ante-Evaluation-of-the-Impact-of-Increases-in-Minimum-Wages-on-Labor-Market-Outcomes-in-Kosovo.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2017. "Reply to “Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studiesâ€," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(3), pages 593-609, May.
    2. Sylvia A. Allegretto & Arindrajit Dube & Michael Reich, 2011. "Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 205-240, April.
    3. Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 0846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Neumark & JM Salas & William Wascher, 2014. "More on recent evidence on the effects of minimum wages in the United States," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Hugo Ñopo, 2008. "Matching as a Tool to Decompose Wage Gaps," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 290-299, May.
    6. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2006. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research," NBER Working Papers 12663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    8. David Neumark & Mark Schweitzer & William Wascher, 2005. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on the Distribution of Family Incomes: A Nonparametric Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(4), pages 867-894.
    9. David Neumark, 2017. "The Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Some Questions We Need to Answer," NBER Working Papers 23584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard Dickens & Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson, 2011. "The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Working Paper Series 2111, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. Bell, Linda A, 1997. "The Impact of Minimum Wages in Mexico and Colombia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 102-135, July.
    12. Gindling, T.H. & Terrell, Katherine, 2009. "Minimum wages, wages and employment in various sectors in Honduras," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-303, June.
    13. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
    14. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    15. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
    16. James Albrecht & Monica Robayo-Abril & Susan Vroman, 2019. "Public-sector Employment in an Equilibrium Search and Matching Model," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 35-61.
    17. Jonathan Meer & Jeremy West, 2016. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(2), pages 500-522.
    18. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    19. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 2008. "The Other Margin: Do Minimum Wages Cause Working Hours Adjustments for Low‐Wage Workers?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 148-167, February.
    20. Alaniz, Enrique & Gindling, T.H. & Terrell, Katherine, 2011. "The impact of minimum wages on wages, work and poverty in Nicaragua," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(S1), pages 45-59.
    21. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & John Van Reenen, 2011. "Minimum Wages and Firm Profitability," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 129-151, January.
    22. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," Working Papers 680, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    23. Ximena V. del Carpio & Julián Messina & Anna Sanz‐de‐Galdeano, 2019. "Minimum Wage: Does it Improve Welfare in Thailand?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(2), pages 358-382, June.
    24. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    25. repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, September.
    27. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    28. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    29. David Card, 1992. "Do Minimum Wages Reduce Employment? A Case Study of California, 1987–89," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 38-54, October.
    30. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    31. Gindling, T.H. & Terrell, Katherine, 2005. "The effect of minimum wages on actual wages in formal and informal sectors in Costa Rica," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1905-1921, November.
    32. Addison, John T. & Blackburn, McKinley L. & Cotti, Chad D., 2013. "Minimum wage increases in a recessionary environment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 30-39.
    33. David Neumark & J. M. Ian Salas & William Wascher, 2014. "Revisiting the Minimum Wage—Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 67(3_suppl), pages 608-648, May.
    34. Thomas MaCurdy, 2015. "How Effective Is the Minimum Wage at Supporting the Poor?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(2), pages 497-545.
    35. Robayo,Monica, 2018. "Tax-Transfers Schemes, Informality, and Search Frictions in a Small Open Economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8574, The World Bank.
    36. Gindling, T.H. & Terrell, Katherine, 2007. "The effects of multiple minimum wages throughout the labor market: The case of Costa Rica," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 485-511, June.
    37. Alexandru Cojocaru, 2017. "Kosovo Jobs Diagnostic," World Bank Publications - Reports 27173, The World Bank Group.
    38. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-121, May.
    39. Richard Dickens & Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson, 2011. "The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Working Paper Series 2111, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    40. Freeman, Richard B, 1996. "The Minimum Wage as a Redistributive Tool," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 639-649, May.
    41. David Neumark, 2015. "The effects of minimum wages on employment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    42. Wendy Cunningham, 2007. "Minimum Wages and Social Policy : Lessons from Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6760.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Neumark, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    2. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2021. "Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?," NBER Working Papers 28388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marlies Piek & Dieter von Fintel, 2020. "Sectoral minimum wages in South Africa: Disemployment by firm size and trade exposure," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 462-482, May.
    4. Laporsek, Suzana & Orazem, Peter F. & Vodopivec, Matija & Vodopivec, Milan, 2019. "Long-Term Responses to Large Minimum Wage Shocks: Sub-Minimum and Super-Minimum Workers in Slovenia," IZA Discussion Papers 12123, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Mario Bossler & Hans-Dieter Gerner, 2020. "Employment Effects of the New German Minimum Wage: Evidence from Establishment-Level Microdata," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(5), pages 1070-1094, October.
    6. Lordan, Grace & Neumark, David, 2018. "People versus machines: The impact of minimum wages on automatable jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-53.
    7. Sotomayor, Orlando J., 2021. "Can the minimum wage reduce poverty and inequality in the developing world? Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Wong, Sara A., 2019. "Minimum wage impacts on wages and hours worked of low-income workers in Ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 77-99.
    9. David Neumark, 2016. "Policy levers to increase jobs and increase income from work after the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Groisman, Fernando & Boffi, Santiago & Calero, Analía & Cuba, María Soledad & Liniado, Julia & Sconfienza, María Eugenia & Vergara Parra, Albano, 2015. "Social protection to the informal sector: the role of minimum wage and income transfer policies," MPRA Paper 72822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. David Neumark, 2017. "The Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Some Questions We Need to Answer," NBER Working Papers 23584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2006. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research," NBER Working Papers 12663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Işık Enes & Orhangazi Özgür & Tekgüç Hasan, 2020. "Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
    14. José Azar & Emiliano Huet-Vaughn & Ioana Marinescu & Bledi Taska & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labor Market Concentration," NBER Working Papers 26101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. David Neumark & Maysen Yen, 2021. "The Employment and Redistributive Effects of Reducing or Eliminating Minimum Wage Tip Credits," NBER Working Papers 29213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sara Wong, 2017. "Minimum wage impacts on wages and hours worked of low-income workers in Ecuador," Working Papers PMMA 2017-14, PEP-PMMA.
    17. Bossler, Mario & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Lochner, Benjamin & Betzl, Ute & Feist, Lisa & Wegmann, Jakob, 2018. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Betriebe und Unternehmen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    18. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 793, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Chletsos, Michael, 2021. "The differentiated effects of minimum wage reforms on unemployment Evidence from the Greek labor market," MPRA Paper 109327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. John Horton, 2017. "Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6548, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.